From: COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States
Base case scenario | ||
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Variables | Base case value | Source |
Population of Virginia | 7,688,059 | Synthetic populations [13] |
Infected individuals at day 0 | 1 (5–17 years of age) | Assumed |
Proportion vaccinated | 91.5% | Calibrated using VDH school immunization data [26] and state-level immunization rate [27] |
Transmissibility | 0.5 | Calibrated to generate an outbreak size of 650 [28] |
Simulation duration | 365 days | Assumed |
Home isolation compliance | 90% | [25] |
CDF of the latency period distribution | {0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.6, 1}† | [25] |
CDF of the infectious period distribution | {0, 0,0, 0, 0, 0, 0.3, 0.7,1}† | [25] |
Experiments | |
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Variables | Set of values used in experiments |
Transmissibility (\(\uptau\)) | {0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9} |
Home isolation compliance | {75, 80, 85, 90, 95}% |
Home isolation initiation day | {3, 4, 5, 6, 7} |
Decline in immunization rate (\(\mathrm{\alpha }\)) | {0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25}% |