Skip to main content

Table 1 Table of variables. Summary of the variables used in the experiments. The cumulative probability distribution is reported as {\({\mathrm{p}}_{1},{\mathrm{p}}_{2}\dots ,{\mathrm{p}}_{\mathrm{n}}\)}, where \({\mathrm{p}}_{\mathrm{i}}\) is the probability that \(\mathrm{i}\) is the last day of latency or of infectiousness, and a measles case will change state within \(\mathrm{n}\) days

From: COVID’s collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States

Base case scenario

Variables

Base case value

Source

Population of Virginia

7,688,059

Synthetic populations [13]

Infected individuals at day 0

1 (5–17 years of age)

Assumed

Proportion vaccinated

91.5%

Calibrated using VDH school immunization data [26] and state-level immunization rate [27]

Transmissibility

0.5

Calibrated to generate an outbreak size of 650 [28]

Simulation duration

365 days

Assumed

Home isolation compliance

90%

[25]

CDF of the latency period distribution

{0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.6, 1}

[25]

CDF of the infectious period distribution

{0, 0,0, 0, 0, 0, 0.3, 0.7,1}

[25]

Experiments

Variables

Set of values used in experiments

Transmissibility (\(\uptau\))

{0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9}

Home isolation compliance

{75, 80, 85, 90, 95}%

Home isolation initiation day

{3, 4, 5, 6, 7}

Decline in immunization rate (\(\mathrm{\alpha }\))

{0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25}%