From: Using outbreak data to estimate the dynamic COVID-19 landscape in Eastern Africa
Model | Posterior estimates | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01–14 Apr | 15 Apr–03 May | 04–17 May | 18–31 May | 01–30 Jun | |||||||||||
\({R}_{0}\) | \(\beta\) | \(\gamma\) | \({R}_{0}\) | \(\beta\) | \(\gamma\) | \({R}_{0}\) | \(\beta\) | \(\gamma\) | \({R}_{0}\) | \(\beta\) | \(\gamma\) | \({R}_{0}\) | \(\beta\) | \(\gamma\) | |
1. Multinomial | |||||||||||||||
 Burundi | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.70 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 1.92 | 0.19 | 0.75 | 2.11 | 0.20 | 0.79 | 2.65 | 0.30 | 0.44 |
 Ethiopia | 3.00 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 1.72 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 2.59 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 2.95 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 2.55 | 0.29 | 0.35 |
 Kenya | 0.52 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 1.50 | 0.16 | 0.40 | 2.00 | 0.21 | 0.55 | 2.58 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 2.18 | 0.23 | 0.45 |
 Rwanda | 4.85 | 0.56 | 0.32 | 2.11 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 1.33 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 1.14 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 1.72 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
 South Sudan | 0.65 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 1.48 | 0.15 | 0.33 | 4.64 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 3.97 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 2.19 | 0.22 | 0.55 |
 Tanzania | 0.50 | 0.05 | 0.59 | 3.28 | 0.32 | 0.77 | 1.71 | 0.17 | 0.60 | 1.73 | 0.18 | 0.42 | 1.35 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
 Uganda | 2.29 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.87 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1.13 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 1.54 | 0.16 | 0.61 | 2.00 | 0.18 | 0.99 |
2. Poisson | |||||||||||||||
 Burundi | 7.92 | 0.94 | 0.20 | 6.31 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 4.9 | 0.59 | 0.19 | 3.30 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 1.66 | 0.20 | 0.19 |
 Ethiopia | 8.90 | 0.95 | 0.19 | 6.56 | 0.70 | 0.21 | 5.10 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 3.67 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 1.82 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
 Kenya | 8.30 | 0.96 | 0.20 | 6.72 | 0.78 | 0.20 | 4.93 | 0.57 | 0.18 | 3.35 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 1.75 | 0.20 | 0.19 |
 Rwanda | 7.71 | 0.93 | 0.20 | 6.17 | 0.75 | 0.21 | 4.73 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 3.16 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 1.56 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
 South Sudan | 8.95 | 0.95 | 0.21 | 6.95 | 0.74 | 0.22 | 5.23 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 3.62 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 1.82 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
 Tanzania | 8.77 | 0.93 | 0.21 | 6.99 | 0.74 | 0.21 | 5.28 | 0.56 | 0.21 | 3.53 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 1.82 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
 Uganda | 9.01 | 0.96 | 0.21 | 6.96 | 0.74 | 0.21 | 5.17 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 3.65 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 1.83 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
3. Binomial | |||||||||||||||
 Burundi | 7.99 | 0.95 | 0.21 | 6.26 | 0.75 | 0.21 | 4.78 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 3.23 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 1.61 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
 Ethiopia | 8.91 | 0.95 | 0.21 | 7.01 | 0.74 | 0.20 | 5.28 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 3.54 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 1.81 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
 Kenya | 7.99 | 0.93 | 0.20 | 6.68 | 0.77 | 0.20 | 5.02 | 0.58 | 0.19 | 3.34 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 1.71 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
 Rwanda | 7.66 | 0.93 | 0.20 | 5.99 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 4.69 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 3.17 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 1.59 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
 South Sudan | 8.93 | 0.95 | 0.21 | 6.99 | 0.74 | 0.20 | 5.22 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 3.72 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 1.83 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
 Tanzania | 8.82 | 0.94 | 0.21 | 6.83 | 0.72 | 0.20 | 5.23 | 0.56 | 0.19 | 3.56 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 1.90 | 0.20 | 0.19 |
 Uganda | 8.63 | 0.92 | 0.21 | 6.85 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 5.22 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 3.77 | 0.40 | 0.22 | 1.78 | 0.19 | 0.19 |