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Table 1 Estimated R0 and endpoint in EACs using the eSIR model for the year 2020/2021

From: Using outbreak data to estimate the dynamic COVID-19 landscape in Eastern Africa

Country

Median

R0

Endpoint

95%CI

Mean

95%CI

Mean

Date (range)

Infected1

Removed2

Burundi

2.58

2.71

1.48–4.58

05/02/20

04/05/20–07/31/20

998 (116–2884)

351 (41–1100)

Ethiopia

2.62

2.75

1.57–4.65

04/27/20

04/04/20–07/01/20

6566 (474–24,130)

5754 (665–20,408)

Kenya

2.57

2.70

1.54–4.67

04/26/20

04/05/20–06/23/20

2572 (455–6876)

2317 (263–7475)

Rwanda

2.96

3.10

3.10–5.22

05/07/20

04/08/20–07/27/20

964 (259–2121)

397 (41–1370)

South Sudan

2.60

2.71

2.71–4.59

05/21/20

04/16/20–09/17/20

2171 (130–10,107)

631 (89–1920)

Tanzania

2.69

2.82

2.82–4.90

05/01/20

04/05/20–07/16/20

4369 (614–14,483)

3353 (428–11,942)

Uganda

2.75

2.87

2.87–4.79

05/06/20

04/06/20–08/03/20

4219 (648–12,354)

2180 (211–8107)

  1. 1Means of predicted infected population at the endpoint followed by the confidence interval in brackets (α = 0.05)
  2. 2Means of predicted removed (recovered + deaths) population at the endpoint followed by the confidence interval in brackets (α = 0.05)