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Fig. 7 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Fig. 7

From: Using outbreak data to estimate the dynamic COVID-19 landscape in Eastern Africa

Fig. 7

SIR model with time-varying quarantine. The level of infection prevalence remained high in Kenya (R0 = 8.59) during the 2020/2021 window. However, the end-point of the pandemic was projected to occur on October 09 2021. A Prediction of COVID-19 infection during 2020/2021 window. The first and second turning points occurred on April 01 and April 02 2020; B Prediction of the removed compartment during 2020/2021 window; C Plot of the first-order derivatives of the posterior prevalence of infection in 2020/2021. The colored semi-transparent rectangles represent the 95% CI of these turning points. D Prediction of the infection of COVID-19 for 2021/2022. The first and second turning points occurred on July 29 and August 01 2021; E Prediction of the removed compartment during 2021/2022 window; F Plot of the first-order derivatives of the posterior prevalence of infection

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