Fig. 6From: Using outbreak data to estimate the dynamic COVID-19 landscape in Eastern AfricaThe standard SIR model without interventions in Kenya. The level of infection prevalence was high (R0 > 1) without intervention measures and, in particular, the endpoints were prolonged. A Prediction of the infection compartment during 2020/2021 window; The first and second turning points occurred on April 01 and May 05. B Prediction of the removed compartment during 2020/2021 window; C Plot of the first-order derivatives of the posterior prevalence of infection in 2020/2021. The black curve is the posterior mean of the derivative, and the vertical lines indicate the first and second turning points and the endpoint of the pandemic. The colored semi-transparent rectangles represent the 95% CI of these turning points. D Prediction of the infection compartment during 2021/2022 window; The first and second turning points occurred on July 30 and August 01. E Prediction of the removed compartment during 2021/2022 window; F Plot of the first-order derivatives of the posterior prevalence of infection for 2021/2022 time periodBack to article page