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Table 2 Forecasting results of the GM (1,1) model in each STD

From: Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of STDs in China: based on the GM (1,1) model

Years HIV infection Syphilis Gonorrhea
Actual incidence (1/100,000) Predictive incidence (1/100,000) APE (%) Actual incidence (1/100,000) Predictive incidence (1/100,000) APE (%) Actual incidence (1/100,000) Predictive incidence (1/100,000) APE (%)
2013 3.12 30.04 7.36
2014 3.33 3.37 1.20 30.93 30.59 1.10 7.05 7.02 0.43
2015 3.69 3.64 1.36 31.85 31.75 0.31 7.36 7.69 4.48
2016 3.97 3.93 1.01 31.97 32.94 3.03 8.39 8.41 0.24
2017 4.14 4.24 2.42 34.49 34.18 0.90 10.06 9.20 8.55
2018 4.62 4.58 0.87 35.63 35.47 0.45 9.59 10.07 5.01
MAPE (%) 1.37 1.16 3.74
Po (%) 98.63 98.84 96.26
C 0.012 0.052 0.132
P 1 1 1
2019 5.1 4.95 2.94 38.37 36.81 4.07 8.45 11.02 30.41
2020 4.43 5.34 20.54 33.08 38.19 15.45 7.49 12.05 60.88
2021 5.77 39.64 13.19