Fig. 1

Proposed baseline scenario. Following the first wave of the epidemic, part of the population acquires natural immunity. Then, we simulate the propagation of a mitigated outbreak due to the presence of some restrictions, social distancing and prophylaxis measures, leading to a slower propagation of the original variant of the disease (\(R_0=1.5\)). After the outbreak extinguishes a back-to-normal situation is assumed and all prevention measures are lifted. Then, an outbreak is seeded again with a higher basic reproductive number, \(R_0=6\). On top of this baseline scenario, we will introduce a vaccination campaign during the first outbreak and explore the impact of vaccination hesitancy on the second outbreak