Fig. 2

Measured prevalence, model fit and projections of colonization with ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae for a range of external forces of colonization. Data from ANRESIS (grey dots and error bars with 95% confidence intervals). Projected future incidence in hospitals decreased monotonously with increasing external force of colonization. *The external force of colonization equivalent is a proxy for the fraction of observed prevalence by 2017 attributable to external sources