Fig. 3

Strong intervention with small \(R_{0,\mathrm{on}}=0.7<1\). Parameters are \(\beta _{\mathrm{off}}=2/7 \ \mathrm{days}^{-1}\) and \(\gamma =1/7 \ \mathrm{days}^{-1}\). A Time series of the fraction of infected and removed individuals, i(t) in blue and r(t) in orange, without intervention. Note that this time series is identical to that presented in Fig. 2(A). Time series with intervention with \(\beta _{\mathrm{on}}=0.7/7 \ \mathrm{days}^{-1}\) and the intervention duration \(\Delta t=60\) days with onset times B \(t_{\mathrm{on}}=12\) days, C \(t_{\mathrm{on}}=30.2\) days, D \(t_{\mathrm{on}}=42.7\) days, and E \(t_{\mathrm{on}}=61\) days. The intervention is implemented for \(t_{\mathrm{on}}\le t \le t_\mathrm{off}=t_{\mathrm{on}}+\Delta t\) and are represented by the grey intervals. Symbols (i), (ii), and (iv) in F denote the times at which the maximum infected fraction is observed. Region (ii) is not observed in this case. Notations of other symbols are the same as those in Fig. 2