Fig. 1

Flowchart of the computational workflow adopted to study the spread of COVID-19. The ODE model is calibrated against epidemiological data of COVID-19 through the Bayesian method CRC. Then, the CRA algorithm is applied in order to study the influence of infection and vaccination parameters on the hospitalization capacity. The main steps of the CRA are the following: (1) choice of an evaluation function representative of the property of interest, (2) perturbation of the parameter space with LHS, (3) model integration using the generated parameter vectors, (4) kernel density approach for estimating the conditional density of each model parameter. The final result is an index, called MIRI, which denotes the impact of the parameter on the chosen model observable