Table 4 Results from scenario modeling using the median and 95% confidence intervals

Introduction probability & testing frequency^a

 High & 5-days

\(-\) 11.22(\(-\) 34.84,12.4)*

\(-\) 0.19(\(-\) 0.27,\(-\) 0.11)*

\(-\) 65.29(\(-\) 91.41,\(-\) 39.16)*

\(-\) 37.5(− 54.66,− 20.34)*

− 27.79(− 37.08,− 18.49)*

− 12.95(− 21.63,− 4.26)*

− 2.07(− 3.48,− 0.66)*

 High & 3-days

\(-\) 51.11(\(-\) 75.06,\(-\) 27.16)*

\(-\) 0.29(\(-\) 0.37,\(-\) 0.21)*

\(-\) 99.08(\(-\) 125.56,\(-\) 72.59)*

− 59.23(− 76.63,− 41.83)*

− 39.85(− 49.27,− 30.43)*

− 24.07(− 32.87,− 15.26)*

− 3.08(− 4.5,− 1.65)*

 Moderate & 5-days

\(-\) 26.06(\(-\) 36.14,\(-\) 15.98)*

\(-\) 0.12(\(-\) 0.14,\(-\) 0.1)*

\(-\) 41.19(\(-\) 49.4,\(-\) 32.97)*

− 24.86(− 30.02,− 19.71)*

− 16.32(− 19.51,− 13.14)*

− 10.16(− 12.49,− 7.82)*

− 1.19(− 1.57,− 0.8)*

 Moderate & 3-days

\(-\) 49.44(\(-\) 59.81,\(-\) 39.07)*

\(-\) 0.17(\(-\) 0.19,\(-\) 0.14)*

\(-\) 57.51(\(-\) 65.96,\(-\) 49.06)*

− 35.06(− 40.36,− 29.75)*

− 22.45(− 25.73,− 19.18)*

− 14.9(− 17.31,− 12.5)*

− 1.75(− 2.15,− 1.36)*

 Low & 5-days

\(-\) 38.54(\(-\) 65.84,\(-\) 11.23)*

\(-\) 0.16(\(-\) 0.24,\(-\) 0.07)*

\(-\) 53.36(\(-\) 83.49,\(-\) 23.23)*

− 29.8(− 46.98,− 12.62)*

− 23.56(− 36.66,− 10.46)*

− 13.76(− 21.93,− 5.58)*

− 1.31(− 2.48,− 0.15)*

 Low & 3-days

\(-\) 45.36(\(-\) 72.66,\(-\) 18.05)*

\(-\) 0.16(\(-\) 0.25,\(-\) 0.07)*

\(-\) 55.49(\(-\) 85.62,\(-\) 25.36)*

− 30.53(− 47.71,− 13.36)*

− 24.96(− 38.06,− 11.86)*

− 13.89(− 22.07,− 5.71)*

− 1.51(− 2.68,− 0.35)*

Introduction probability & vaccine prioritization

 High & resident

2.01(\(-\) 3.61,7.62)

\(-\) 0.01(\(-\) 0.03,0.01)

\(-\) 3.26(\(-\) 10.11,3.59)

\(-\) 6.79(\(-\) 11.16,\(-\) 2.43)*

3.53(0.81,6.24)*

− 3.27(− 5.18,− 1.35)*

− 0.5(− 0.79,− 0.2)*

 High & staff

\(-\) 5.1(\(-\) 10.6, \(-\) 0.4)*

\(-\) 0.02(\(-\) 0.04,0)

\(-\) 6.18(\(-\) 12.89,0.52)

\(-\) 0.71(\(-\) 4.99,3.57)*

− 5.47(− 8.13,− 2.82)*

− 0.81(− 2.68,1.07)*

− 0.19(− 0.49,0.1)*

 Moderate & resident

5.22(0.88,9.57)*

0(\(-\) 0.01,0.01)

\(-\) 0.06(\(-\) 3.85,3.73)

\(-\) 2.58(\(-\) 4.87,\(-\) 0.3)*

2.53(0.89,4.16)*

\(-\) 1.11(− 2.11,− 0.11)*

− 0.2(− 0.35,− 0.06)*

 Moderate & staff

\(-\) 2(\(-\) 6.89,2.9)

0(\(-\) 0.02,0.01)

\(-\) 1.19(\(-\) 5.58,3.2)

2.02(\(-\) 0.62,4.66)

\(-\) 3.21(\(-\) 5.12,− 1.31)*

0.74(− 0.42,1.9)

− 0.05(− 0.22,0.12)

 Low & resident

1.96(\(-\) 3.52,7.45)

0.01(0,0.03)*

3.97(\(-\) 0.8,8.75)

0(\(-\) 2.45,2.45)

3.98(1.49,6.46)*

0(\(-\) 1.06,1.06)

0.16(0,0.32)

 Low & staff

\(-\) 6.36(\(-\) 11.74,\(-\) 0.99)*

\(-\) 0.01(\(-\) 0.02,0)*

\(-\) 3.09(\(-\) 7.77,1.59)

\(-\) 1.05(\(-\) 3.45,1.35)

− 2.04(− 4.48,0.4)

− 0.72(− 1.77,0.32)

0.01(− 0.15,0.16)