Table 3 Difference in simulation outcomes estimated by regression when compared to baseline

Baseline

106.46 (99.9, 112.88)

0.29 (0.26, 0.31)

98.5 (90, 106)

60 (54.5, 65)

38 (35, 41)

25.5 (23, 27.5)

3 (2.5, 3.5)

Transmission probability

 Low transmission (0.304)

\(-\) 19.96(\(-\) 26.68,\(-\) 13.24)*

\(-\) 0.12(\(-\) 0.16,\(-\) 0.09)*

\(-\) 42.73(\(-\) 53.82,\(-\) 31.65)*

\(-\) 26.06(\(-\) 32.8,\(-\) 19.31)*

\(-\) 16.68(\(-\) 21.12,\(-\) 12.23)*

\(-\) 10.79(\(-\) 13.68,\(-\) 7.9)*

\(-\) 1.38(\(-\) 1.79,\(-\) 0.97)*

 High transmission (0.42)

9.81(2.95,16.68)*

0.11(0.07,0.14)*

36.4(25.08,47.71)*

21.83(14.94,28.71)*

14.57(10.03,19.11)*

9.27(6.32,12.22)*

1.13(0.72,1.55)*

Introduction probability

 Low introduction probability (0.01)

\(-\) 26.82(\(-\) 33.71,\(-\)19.93)*

0(\(-\) 0.04,0.03)*

\(-\) 0.28(\(-\) 12.44,11.89)*

\(-\) 3.34(\(-\) 10.66,3.99)*

3.06(\(-\) 1.85,7.97)*

\(-\) 1.56(\(-\) 4.69,1.57)*

\(-\) 0.22(\(-\) 0.65,0.22)*

 High introduction probability (0.1)

3.38(\(-\) 3.7,10.47)*

0.11(0.07,0.14)*

37.29(24.78,49.81)*

26.52(18.98,34.06)*

10.78(5.72,15.83)*

11.28(8.06,14.5)*

1.41(0.96,1.86)*

Detection probability

 Low detection probability (0.64)

10.16(1.68,18.64)*

0.03(\(-\) 0.01,0.07)*

10.81(\(-\) 3.15,24.78)*

7.9(\(-\) 0.54,16.34)*

2.92(\(-\) 2.75,8.58)*

3.54(\(-\) 0.09,7.17)*

0.3(\(-\) 0.23,0.82)*

 High detection probability (0.9)

\(-\) 23.49(\(-\) 30.17,\(-\) 16.82)*

\(-\) 0.19(\(-\) 0.22,\(-\) 0.16)*

\(-\) 65.23(\(-\) 76.23,\(-\) 54.23)*

\(-\) 40.11(\(-\) 46.76,\(-\) 33.47)*

\(-\) 25.12(\(-\) 29.58,\(-\) 20.66)*

\(-\) 16.49(\(-\) 19.35,\(-\) 13.63)*

\(-\) 1.86(\(-\) 2.27,\(-\) 1.45)*

PPE effect

 High effect PPE (0.07)

\(-\) 41.73(\(-\) 52.31,\(-\) 31.14)*

\(-\) 0.09(\(-\) 0.13,\(-\) 0.04)*

\(-\) 29.24(\(-\) 46.43,\(-\) 12.05)*

\(-\) 17.58(\(-\) 27.98,\(-\) 7.17)*

\(-\) 11.66(\(-\) 18.63,\(-\) 4.7)*

\(-\) 7.14(\(-\) 11.62,\(-\) 2.66)*

\(-\) 1.03(\(-\) 1.68,\(-\) 0.37)*

 Low effect PPE (0.34)

22.13(16.63,27.63)*

0.22(0.19,0.24)*

75.13(66.2,84.06)*

46.32(40.91,51.72)*

28.82(25.2,32.43)*

19.35(17.02,21.68)*

2.21(1.87,2.55)*

Asymptomatic transmission

 Low asymptomatic transmission (0.34)

21.44(12.12,30.76)*

0.08(0.04,0.13)*

29.14(13.41,44.86)*

18.27(8.75,27.79)*

10.86(4.52,17.21)*

7.7(3.63,11.77)*

0.89(0.31,1.47)*

 High asymptomatic transmission (0.99)

26.85(18.19,35.52)*

0.23(0.19,0.27)*

78.69(64.06,93.32)*

49.4(40.54,58.26)*

29.29(23.39,35.19)*

21.18(17.4,24.96)*

2.24(1.7,2.77)*

Age specific difference in transmission

 High age specific difference (0.34)

\(-\) 2.11(\(-\)9.08,4.86)

0(\(-\) 0.04,0.03)

\(-\) 0.33(\(-\)12.47,11.8)

0.25(\(-\) 7.12,7.63)

\(-\) 0.59(\(-\)5.44,4.26)

0.14(\(-\) 3.01,3.29)

0(\(-\) 0.44,0.44)

 Low age specific difference (0.99)

\(-\) 4.64(\(-\) 11.56,2.28)

0(\(-\) 0.04,0.03)

\(-\) 0.8(\(-\) 12.86,11.25)

\(-\) 0.77(\(-\) 8.1,6.56)

\(-\) 0.04(\(-\) 4.86,4.79)

\(-\) 0.13(\(-\) 3.26,3)

0.01(\(-\) 0.43,0.44)

Testing frequency

 Testing frequency, 5-days^a

\(-\) 26.98(\(-\) 36.51,\(-\) 17.44)*

\(-\) 0.12(\(-\) 0.14,\(-\) 0.1)*

\(-\) 41.68(\(-\) 49.52,\(-\) 33.84)*

\(-\) 24.85(\(-\) 29.75,\(-\) 19.95)*

\(-\) 16.83(\(-\) 19.89,\(-\) 13.77)*

\(-\) 9.94(\(-\) 12.16,\(-\) 7.72)*

\(-\) 1.18(\(-\) 1.55,\(-\) 0.82)*

 Testing frequency, 3-days^a

\(-\) 48.53(\(-\) 58.31,\(-\) 38.76)*

\(-\) 0.17(\(-\) 0.19,\(-\) 0.14)*

\(-\) 57.33(\(-\) 65.37,\(-\) 49.29)*

\(-\) 34.57(\(-\) 39.59,\(-\) 29.55)*

\(-\) 22.76(\(-\) 25.9,\(-\) 19.62)*

\(-\) 14.59(\(-\) 16.86,\(-\) 12.31)*

\(-\) 1.71(\(-\) 2.08,\(-\) 1.34)*

Vaccine distribution (when compared to no vaccination)

 Equal distribution

\(-\) 38.89(\(-\) 42.38,\(-\) 35.4)*

\(-\) 0.16(\(-\) 0.17,\(-\) 0.14)*

\(-\) 53.66(\(-\) 58.48,\(-\) 48.85)*

\(-\) 33.29(\(-\) 36.21,\(-\) 30.36)*

\(-\) 20.37(\(-\) 22.34,\(-\) 18.41)*

\(-\) 13.76(\(-\) 15.01,\(-\) 12.5)*

\(-\) 1.65(\(-\) 1.82,\(-\) 1.47)*

 Resident priority

\(-\) 34.08(\(-\) 37.67,\(-\) 30.48)*

\(-\) 0.15(\(-\) 0.17,\(-\) 0.14)*

\(-\) 52.95(\(-\) 57.92,\(-\) 47.98)*

\(-\) 36.16(\(-\) 39.18,\(-\) 33.14)*

\(-\) 16.79(\(-\) 18.82,\(-\) 14.76)*

\(-\) 15.05(\(-\) 16.34,\(-\) 13.75)*

\(-\) 1.82(\(-\) 2,\(-\) 1.63)*

 Staff priority

\(-\) 42.09(\(-\) 45.62,\(-\) 38.55)*

\(-\) 0.16(\(-\) 0.18,\(-\) 0.15)*

\(-\) 56.14(\(-\) 61.02,\(-\) 51.27)*

\(-\) 32.45(\(-\) 35.41,\(-\) 29.48)*

\(-\) 23.7(\(-\) 25.69,\(-\) 21.71)*

\(-\) 13.66(\(-\) 14.93,\(-\) 12.39)*

\(-\) 1.7(\(-\) 1.88,\(-\) 1.52)*

Vaccine effect (when compared to similar age-specific effect)

 Different age-specific vaccine efficacy [Pfizer] (0.06^b,0.04^c)

\(-\) 1.12(\(-\) 4.41,2.17)

0(\(-\) 0.01,0.01)

\(-\) 0.98(\(-\) 4.1,2.13)

\(-\) 0.76(\(-\) 2.65,1.14)

\(-\) 0.23(\(-\) 1.59,1.14)

\(-\) 0.32(\(-\) 1.15,0.51)

\(-\) 0.07(\(-\) 0.19,0.06)

 Different age-specific vaccine efficacy [Moderna] (0.13^b, 0.04^c)

3.7(0.36,7.03)*

0.01(0,0.02)*

3.93(0.78,7.09)*

1.37(\(-\) 0.55,3.29)

2.56(1.18,3.95)*

0.58(\(-\) 0.26,1.43)

0.05(\(-\) 0.08,0.17)