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Table 2 HCV disease burden model input parameters

From: Ten years countdown to hepatitis C elimination in Belgium: a mathematical modeling approach

Category

Item

Source

Year

Base

Range*

Belgian Model Assumptions

Population by 5-year age and sex

[21]

1950–2050

Mortality rate by 5-year age and sex

[21]

1950–2050

Anti-HCV + prevalence

See Table 1 for base estimate (low [2]; high [22])

2015

0.3%

0.2–0.8%

Viremic rate

[2]

2015

50%

HCV prevalence by 5-year age and sex

[23] and WIV HepC Report

2004

Additional file 1 (pp 3)

Annually treated

National reports (Sciensano)

2019

2459

Total diagnosed

Input national experts

2015

43%

Newly diagnosed (anti-HCV +)

[19]

2015

2278

Disease Burden Model Parameters (not country specific)

Standardized Mortality Ratio—Injection Drug Use

See Additional file 1 (pp3) [24,25,26,27,28,29]

1950–2050

10.0

9.5–29.9

Standardized Mortality Ratio—Transfusion

See Additional file 1 (pp3) [30]

1950–2050

2.1

1.3–17.6

Disease Progression—Acute to Spontaneous Clearance

See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7)

1950–2050

18.0%

15.0–45.0%

Disease Progression—Mild to Moderate Fibrosis

See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7)

1950–2050

Varies by age

(−) 41%

( +) 53%

Disease Progression—Moderate Fibrosis to Cirrhosis

See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7)

1950–2050

Varies by age

(−) 43%

( +) 90%

Disease Progression—Cirrhosis to HCC

See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7)

1950–2050

Varies by age

(−) 26%

( +) 32%

Disease Progression—Cirrhosis to Decompensated Cirrhosis

See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7)

1950–2050

Varies by age

(−) 30%

( +) 36%

Disease Progression—Decompensated Cirrhosis to Liver Related Death

See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7)

1950–2050

Varies by age

(−) 20%

( +) 20%

Disease Progression—HCC to Liver Related Death (year 1)

See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7)

1950–2050

70.7%

43.0–77.0%

Disease Progression—HCC to Liver Related Death (subsequent years)

See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7)

1950–2050

16.2%

11.0–23.0%

  1. *Ranges are only provided for parameters considered in the uncertainty analysis