From: Ten years countdown to hepatitis C elimination in Belgium: a mathematical modeling approach
Category | Item | Source | Year | Base | Range* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belgian Model Assumptions | Population by 5-year age and sex | [21] | 1950–2050 | – | – |
Mortality rate by 5-year age and sex | [21] | 1950–2050 | – | – | |
Anti-HCV + prevalence | 2015 | 0.3% | 0.2–0.8% | ||
Viremic rate | [2] | 2015 | 50% | – | |
HCV prevalence by 5-year age and sex | [23] and WIV HepC Report | 2004 | Additional file 1 (pp 3) | – | |
Annually treated | National reports (Sciensano) | 2019 | 2459 | – | |
Total diagnosed | Input national experts | 2015 | 43% | – | |
Newly diagnosed (anti-HCV +) | [19] | 2015 | 2278 | – | |
Disease Burden Model Parameters (not country specific) | Standardized Mortality Ratio—Injection Drug Use | 1950–2050 | 10.0 | 9.5–29.9 | |
Standardized Mortality Ratio—Transfusion | 1950–2050 | 2.1 | 1.3–17.6 | ||
Disease Progression—Acute to Spontaneous Clearance | See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7) | 1950–2050 | 18.0% | 15.0–45.0% | |
Disease Progression—Mild to Moderate Fibrosis | See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7) | 1950–2050 | Varies by age | (−) 41% ( +) 53% | |
Disease Progression—Moderate Fibrosis to Cirrhosis | See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7) | 1950–2050 | Varies by age | (−) 43% ( +) 90% | |
Disease Progression—Cirrhosis to HCC | See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7) | 1950–2050 | Varies by age | (−) 26% ( +) 32% | |
Disease Progression—Cirrhosis to Decompensated Cirrhosis | See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7) | 1950–2050 | Varies by age | (−) 30% ( +) 36% | |
Disease Progression—Decompensated Cirrhosis to Liver Related Death | See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7) | 1950–2050 | Varies by age | (−) 20% ( +) 20% | |
Disease Progression—HCC to Liver Related Death (year 1) | See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7) | 1950–2050 | 70.7% | 43.0–77.0% | |
Disease Progression—HCC to Liver Related Death (subsequent years) | See Additional file 1 (pp 6–7) | 1950–2050 | 16.2% | 11.0–23.0% |