Table 2 Prior distributions and initial values (obtained from CIPHA data) used for model fits

(a) Prior distributions used for initialising model fits

Name

\(\bf {\gamma}\)

Prior distributions

Initial values

\(\bf {\beta}\)

\(\bf {I,I_{ij}}\)

\(\bf {e_{ij},\mu _{i}}\)

\(\bf {S,S_{ij},R,R_{ij}}\)

(b) Initial values when assuming all infected from start of pandemic moved to removed class

S

\(\bf {S_{1A}}\)

\(\bf {S_{2A}}\)

\(\bf {S_{1P}}\)

\(\bf {S_{2P}}\)

R

\(\bf {R_{1A}}\)

\(\bf {R_{2A}}\)

\(\bf {R_{1P}}\)

\(\bf {R_{2P}}\)

(c) Initial values when assuming infected individuals are underestimated by 50%

S

\(\bf {S_{1A}}\)

\(\bf {S_{2A}}\)

\(\bf {S_{1P}}\)

\(\bf {S_{2P}}\)

R

\(\bf {R_{1A}}\)

\(\bf {R_{2A}}\)

\(\bf {R_{1P}}\)

\(\bf {R_{2P}}\)