Fig. 1
From: On the accuracy of short-term COVID-19 fatality forecasts
Comparison of predicted and reported weekly COVID-19 deaths in the US (data updated in June 2021). a, b Forecasts of reported weekly COVID-19 deaths in the US for a 1-week and b 4-week forecasting horizons. Blue and red lines represent CDC ensemble forecasts [1] and regularized Euler forecasts [Eq. (3)] with \(\uplambda =10\), respectively. Reported COVID-19 fatalities (dashed black lines) are based on [11]. c, d 4-week moving averages of weekly forecasting errors of Euler–Lagrange and CDC ensemble forecasts. Solid lines indicate 4-week moving averages that are calculated based on the shown data points