Skip to main content

Table 1 Sensitivity and PPV for dengue outbreak prediction using hospitalized cases as outbreak indicator; for chikungunya outbreak prediction using probable cases as outbreak indicator; for Zika outbreak prediction, using defined and probable cases as outbreak indicators

From: The Early Warning and Response System (EWARS-TDR) for dengue outbreaks: can it also be applied to chikungunya and Zika outbreak warning?

Dengue outbreak

Country

Alarm indicators

Sensitivity (%)

PPV (%)

No. of outbreaks

No. of Alarms

Alarm threshold

Lag week

Colombia

Mean temp

86

61

76

106

0.69

3

Rainfall

74

51

76

110

0.70

3

Humidity

80

60

76

102

0.65

3

Probable cases

91

50

77

141

0.75

5

Multiple indicators*

92

68

50

68

0.70

3

Mexico**

Mean temp

81

72

–

–

–

–

Rainfall

87

65

–

–

–

–

Humidity

94

50

–

–

–

–

Probable cases

100

83

–

–

–

–

Multiple indicators*

84

77

–

–

–

–

Chikungunya outbreak

Colombia

Mean temp

77

71

13

14

0.80

10

Rainfall

93

48

14

27

0.45

12

Humidity

92

85

15

13

0.75

12

Multiple indicators*

92

92

12

12

0.74

13

Zika outbreak

Colombia

Mean temp

100

11

2

19

0.05

10

Rainfall

50

54

2

7

0.05

6

Humidity

50

11

2

9

0.06

10

Multiple indicators*

100

14

2

14

0.05

10

Mexico

Mean temp

92

100

36

33

0.50

4

Rainfall

97

94

28

28

0.40

4

Humidity (daylight)

88

86

53

52

0.50

5

Humidity (night)

97

98

29

29

0.50

5

Positive ovitrap

92

97

25

25

0.40

5

Average Egg counts

78

77

22

22

0.40

4

  1. *Multiple indicators; temperature, precipitation and humidity, PPV positive predictive value
  2. **Values from Mexico taken from a previous period [14]
Back to article page

BMC Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 1471-2334

Contact us