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Fig. 2 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Fig. 2

From: Assessment of the fatality rate and transmissibility taking account of undetected cases during an unprecedented COVID-19 surge in Taiwan

Fig. 2

A Statuses of infection and testing of individual deaths. The gray bar represents the infection statuses of an infected case who later died after the start of infection. Orange and blue bars represent the flow of testing from the first test \(T_{1}\) until the infected case was reported \(R\). The infected case was categorized as Detected if the first test was performed before death. A case that was tested on the same date of or after death was categorized as Undetected. Among detected cases, we assumed that a case was contact traced without delay if the first test \(T_{1}\) was performed before symptom onset \(O\); otherwise, contact traced with delay or not contact traced if the \(T_{1}\) was performed after symptom onset. Testing delay refers to the time between symptom onset and the final (last) test \(T_{f}\). Similarly, the reporting delay and death delay are defined as the time differences between symptom onset and reporting \(R\), and death \(D\), respectively. The reporting time among an undetected death was adjusted to an earlier time to have the same reporting delay as detected deaths. B Estimation of total number of COVID-19 cases (sum of detected and undetected) using a regression model. With the best-fitting model (see Table 2), we estimated the percentage of deaths that are detected, \(m\left( t \right)\). Undetected proportion of cases was estimated based on the relationship between \(m\left( t \right)\) and fatality rates (see Eq. 6). Gray dashed lines represent the predictors that were not included in the best-fitting model while estimating \(m\left( t \right)\)

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