Determining target populations for leprosy prophylactic interventions: a hotspot analysis in Indonesia

Taal, A. T.; Blok, D. J.; Handito, A.; Wibowo, S.; Sumarsono; Wardana, A.; Pontororing, G.; Sari, D. F.; van Brakel, W. H.; Richardus, J. H.; Prakoeswa, C. R. S.

doi:10.1186/s12879-022-07103-0

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 1 The total population targeted for PEP for the three PEP strategies for Pamekasan and Pasuruan

From: Determining target populations for leprosy prophylactic interventions: a hotspot analysis in Indonesia

	Heatmap radius (m)	Cluster density¹	Number of clusters	Total cluster area (km²)	Total number of cases in cluster	Proportion of cases in cluster²	Population targeted for PEP
							Contact strategy				Population-wide strategy
							20 contacts		100 individuals		Total population in clusters³
Pamekasan	500	Low	122	34.46	644	56.4%	12,880	34%⁴	64,400	168%⁵	38,289
		Moderate	29	4.09	199	17.4%	3980	88%	19,990	438%⁵	4544
		High	3	0.63	57	5.0%	1140	163%⁵	5700	814%⁵	700
	1000	Low	63	201.47	947	82.9%	18,940	8%	94,700	42%	223,853
		Moderate	40	44.05	468	41.0%	9360	19%	46,800	96%	48,944
		High	8	6.01	133	11.6%	2660	40%	13,300	199%⁵	6678
	1500	Low	14	447.46	1080	94.6%	21,600	4%	108,000	22%	497,173
		Moderate	32	168.33	758	66.4%	15,160	8%	75,800	41%	187,031
		High	19	39.33	340	29.8%	6800	16%	3400	78%	43,700
	2000	Low	4	653.95	1122	98.2%	22,440	3%	112,200	15%	726,604
		Moderate	17	366.67	971	85.0%	19,420	5%	97,100	24%	407,407
		High	13	119.3	550	48.2%	11,000	8%	55,000	41%	132,554
	2500	Low	1	789.68	1137	99.6%	22,740	3%	113,700	13%	877,413
		Moderate	4	574.33	1089	95.4%	21,780	3%	108,900	17%	638,138
		High	11	254.6	749	65.6%	14,980	5%	74,900	26%	282,886
Pasuruan	500	Low	86	32.39	608	57.5%	12,160	34%	60,800	169%⁵	35,989
		Moderate	27	5.84	247	23.4%	4940	76%	24,700	381%⁵	6489
		High	3	0.23	29	2.7%	580	227%⁵	2900	1135%⁵	256
	1000	Low	52	161.46	840	79.5%	16,800	9%	84,000	47%	179,398
		Moderate	24	47.13	492	46.5%	9840	19%	49,200	94%	52,366
		High	10	12.29	229	21.7%	4580	34%	22,900	168%⁵	13,655
	1500	Low	24	347.05	948	89.7%	18,960	5%	94,800	25%	385,607
		Moderate	19	136.44	679	64.2%	13,580	9%	67,900	45%	151,598
		High	10	48.62	419	39.6%	8380	16%	41,900	78%	54,022
	2000	Low	10	541.19	992	93.9%	19,840	3%	99,200	16%	601,316
		Moderate	9	268.94	804	76.1%	16,080	5%	80,400	27%	298,819
		High	11	112.25	564	53.4%	11,280	9%	56,400	45%	124,721
	2500	Low	3	697.94	1017	96.2%	20,340	3%	101,700	13%	775,481
		Moderate	4	418.42	897	84.9%	17,940	4%	89,700	19%	464,906
		High	10	215.44	720	68.1%	14,400	6%	72,000	30%	239,375

¹Cluster density based on the cut-off values ≥ 2 (low density), ≥ 5 (moderate density), and ≥ 10 (high density)
²The proportion of total leprosy cases that living in the area and within a cluster
³The total population in clusters was calculated as the cluster area multiplied by the population density of Pamekasan (i.e., 1111.1) and of Pasuruan (i.e., 1212.7)
⁴The proportion of population living in clusters that would be targeted for PEP
⁵The proportion of population targeted for PEP (i.e., number of cases in clusters multiplied with 20 contacts or 100 individuals) exceeds the size of the population in the identified clusters

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ISSN: 1471-2334

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