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Table 1 Cholera projection scenarios for 2020–2070 at decadal intervals: Scenario 1 (S1), a “best-case” scenario; Scenario 2 (S2), an intermediate scenario and Scenario 3 (S3), a “worst-case” scenario. The scenarios were projected over 50 years from 2020 to 2070. HWC = high withdraw countries including MDG, LBY, SDN, MRT and MAR

From: Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

  Year Drought Temperature Poverty Water withdrawal
Scenario 1 2020 2000–2016 average 2000–2016 average 2016 2016
2030 2000–2016 average Reduce 2016 by 50% 2016
2040 2000–2016 average Reduce 2016 by 50% 2016
2050 RCP4.5 2050 Medium value between 2030 & 2070 20% increase and 20% decrease for HWC
2060 RCP4.5 2050 Medium value between 2030 and 2070 20% increase and 20% decrease for HWC
2070 RCP4.5 2070 Poverty elimination (0%) 20% increase and 20% decrease for HWC
Scenario 2 2020 Median value between S1 and S2 2000–2016 average 2016 2016
2030 2000–2016 average 2016 2016
2040 2000–2016 average 2016 2016
2050 RCP6.0 2050 Reduce 2016 by 50% 10% increase and 10% decrease for HWC
2060 RCP6.0 2050 Medium value between 2050 and 2070 10% increase and 10% decrease for HWC
2070 RCP6.0 207 Poverty elimination (0%) 10% increase and 10% decrease for HWC
Scenario 3 2020 [(Coefficient*4) + 2016 value] 2000–2016 average 2016 2016
2030 [(Coefficient*10) + 2020 value] 2000–2016 average 2016 2016
2040 [(Coefficient*10) + 2030 value] 2000–2016 average 2016 2016
2050 [(Coefficient*10) + 2040 value] RCP8.5 2050 2016 5% increase and 5% decrease for HWC
2060 [(Coefficient*10) + 2050 value] RCP8.5 2050 Medium value between 2050 and 2070 5% increase and 5% decrease for HWC
2070 [(Coefficient*10) + 2060 value] RCP8.5 2070 Reduce 2016 value by 50% 5% increase and 5% decrease for HWC