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Fig. 4 | BMC Infectious Diseases

Fig. 4

From: Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather

Fig. 4

Some of the drivers influencing the seasonality of UK respiratory infections. Seasonal coronavirus infections are thought to be influenced by the size of the susceptible child population, which drives an annual epidemic in children that, in turn, infects susceptible adults. The timing of the epidemic is influenced by changing transmission dynamics through the year. Low temperature, low humidity, short daylength and low UV all probably contribute to better survival of the virus in winter months than summer, pushing the immunity driven epidemic to occur in the winter months. Travel abroad introduces new viruses that differ from the currently circulating strains. Travel variation will differ by country and holidays/festivals (including school/university holidays) (Additional file 1: S5). Many social and public interactions that contribute to infection are relatively constant through the year. In addition to these drivers there will be the gradual increase in susceptibility as a result of declining antibody levels and genetic drift within the viruses

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