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Table 1 Country-level estimates of the main aspects of ART rollout and pretreatment NNRTI resistance in southern Africa

From: Drivers of HIV-1 drug resistance to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) in nine southern African countries: a modelling study

Country

Timing of ART rollout, year (95% CrI)

Intensity of ART rollout, per year (95% CrI)

NNRTI PDR in 2018 (%) (95% CrI)

NNRTI PDR in 2018 unrelated to ART programmes (%) (95% CrI)

Proportion of NNRTI PDR in 2018 unrelated to ART programmes (%) (95% CrI)

Fragility index regarding NNRTI PDR of ART programmes (95% CrI)

Botswana

2005 (2004–2006)

0.13 (0.12–0.15)

3.7% (2.6–5.6)

1.5% (0.7–2.4)

42% (15–2)

0.01 (0.00–0.11)

Eswatini

2009 (2009–2009)

0.24 (0.18–0.29)

25.3% (17.9–33.7)

1.6% (0.5–3.0)

6% (2–14)

0.64 (0.23–11.8)

Lesotho

2007 (2006–2007)

0.09 (0.082–0.099)

3.9% (1.3–9.8)

2.2% (0.8–4.6)

62% (20–86)

0.01 (0.00–0.70)

Malawi

2009 (2009–2009)

0.22 (0.18–0.28)

8.9% (4.2–24.4)

3.2% (2.1–4.4)

37% (11–72)

0.04 (0.00–1.30)

Mozambique

2009 (2009–2009)

0.11 (0.094–0.13)

3.3% (1.9–6.9)

2.0% (1.2–3.0)

65% (26–84)

0.01 (0.00–0.70)

Namibia

2007 (2006–2008)

0.18 (0.15–0.21)

24.9% (17.8–32.2)

2.1% (0.8–4.7)

8% (3–22)

0.48 (0.15–11.2)

South Africa

2009 (2009–2009)

0.13 (0.12–0.14)

22.7% (18.9–26.1)

1.7% (1.3–2.3)

8% (5–10)

1.21 (0.83–9.84)

Zambia

2008 (2007–2009)

0.17 (0.14–0.21)

6.3% (3.5–13.5)

3.1% (2.1–4.4)

50% (21–80)

0.01 (0.00–0.27)

Zimbabwe

2009 (2009–2009)

0.25 (0.2–0.32)

13.7% (6.8–22.9)

3.9% (3.0–4.7)

28% (15–60)

0.17 (0.00–2.65)

  1. PDR pretreatment drug resistance
  2. The timing of ART rollout refers to the date at which 50% of the maximum treatment rate is reached. The intensity of ART rollout refers to the peak treatment rate per year. NNRTI PDR in 2018 is the model-predicted prevalence of NNRTI PDR. Posterior medians with 95% credibility intervals are shown