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Table 6 Interrupted time-series regression of death rate per 100,000 in relation to countries- and sub-countries stringency Indices (Intervention)

From: Factors shaping the COVID-19 epidemic curve: a multi-country analysis

  Deaths per 100,000
Country level India Nepal Nigeria Colombia Mexico South Korea Italy Germany Sweden
 Baseline trend 2.3 × 10–6 0.000 0.001* 0.002* 0.000* 0.001 0.001 0.0003* 0.0002
 At intervention 1 −0.004* −0.359* 0.039* −1.562* 1.056* −1.033*
 Trend after intervention 1 0.001* 0.055* 0.002* 0.301* 0.034* 0.303*
 At intervention 2 0.022* −0.015 6.704* 0.054
 Trend after intervention 2 0.001 −0.007* −0.413* 0.073
 At intervention 3 0.027* 0.002 −0.012 0.101* −0.006 −0.144* −1.348* −4.665
 Trend after intervention 3 −0.000 0.001 −0.001 0.008* 0.005* −0.062 −0.778* −0.451*
 General trend after all levels of intervention 0.001 0.002 0.0002 0.01* 0.055* −0.0004* −0.174* −0.043* −0.074
 Sub-country level Kerala Kathmandua Abuja North Santander Nuevo León Daegu Lombardy Baden–Württemberg Västra Götaland
 Baseline trend 7.78 × 10–6 0.001 0.003* 0.002* 0.027 0.335* 0.003* 0.018*
 At intervention 1 0.006 –0.013 0.696* 28.27* 2.596* 0.146
 Trend after intervention 1 −0.001 0.015* −0.009 −0.679* −0.01 0.271
 At intervention 2 −0.949
 Trend after intervention 2 −0.248
 At intervention 3 −0.001 −0.037 −0.035 −0.745* −4.803 −1.633*
 Trend after intervention 3 0.002 0.009 −0.005 −0.036* 0.019 0.026
 General trend after all levels of intervention 0.002 0.008 −0.002 0.017* −0.018* −0.325* 0.02 0.041
  1. Intervention 1 measured at 50th, intervention 2 measured at 75th and intervention 3 measured at 95th percentile
  2. *significant change (p < 0.001)
  3. aNo reported cases
  4. bIntervention 1 is measured at 10th percentile instead of 50th percentile (only in Sweden)