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Table 5 Interrupted time-series regression of infection rate per 100,000 in relation to countries- and sub-countries stringency Indices (Intervention)

From: Factors shaping the COVID-19 epidemic curve: a multi-country analysis

  Cases per 100,000
Country level India Nepal Nigeria Colombia Mexico South Korea Italy Germany Sweden
 Baseline trend 0.0001* −0.001 7.9 × 10–6 0.001* 0.006* 0.004 0.002 0.136* 0.025*
 At intervention 1 −0.148* −0.01 0.003 0.561* −2.676* 8.160* −12.819* 61.896* −0.073a
 Trend after intervention 1 0.042* 0.004* 0.006* 0.114* 0.461* −0.181* 3.135* −1.368* 1.787*
 At intervention 2 0.626 31.33* −3.262
 Trend after intervention 2 0.124* −4.857* −0.718
 At intervention 3 0.384 −0.509 0.604* 0.946 −0.119 −4.98 −1.213 −6.781
 Trend after intervention 3 0.098* 0.142* 0.02* 0.316* −0.069* 0.557 0.973* −1.303
 General trend after all levels of intervention 0.14* 0.146* 0.025* 0.432* 0.467* 0.016* −1.163* −0.232* −0.21
Sub-country level Kerala Kathmandu Abuja North Santander Nuevo León Daegu Lombardy Baden-Württemberg Västra Götaland
 Baseline trend 0.005* 0.006 0.014* 0.022* 0.021* 6.33* 3.33* 0.838* 0.401*
 At intervention 1 0.33* −0.117 0.091 0.432 −1.214* 105.136* 130.759* 75.703* 12.026a
 Trend after intervention 1 −0.011* −0.006 0.076 −0.021 0.164* −10.589* −5.785* −2.468* 0.433
 At intervention 2
 Trend after intervention 2
 At intervention 3 0.395* 0.127 0.91 0.439 30.13 −3.432 7.368 14.163
 Trend after intervention 3 0.170* 0.026 −0.069 −0.02 4.223* 0.934 1.646* −0.639
 General trend after all levels of intervention 0.165* 0.026 0.021 −0.019 0.185* −0.036* −1.52* 0.016 0.195
  1. Intervention 1 measured at 50th, intervention 2 measured at 75th and intervention 3 measured at 95th percentile
  2. *Significant change (p < 0.05)
  3. aintervention 1 is measured at 10th percentile instead of 50th (only in Sweden)