Factors shaping the COVID-19 epidemic curve: a multi-country analysis

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 3 Critical period of infection and delay to the containment measures in nine target countries

Country	Delay to the first action^a	Delay to the full action^b	First case confirmed	Peak date^c	Critical period^d	No. of cases at peak	No. of deaths at peak
Germany	−2 days^e	56 days (except public transport)	27 Jan	27 Mar	61 days	50,871	342
Italy	−7 days^e	41 days	31 Jan	21 Mar	51 days	53,578	4825
Sweden	39 days	65 days (except public events, public transport, and internal traveling)	31 Jan	24 Apr	85 days	17,567	2152
South Korea	12 days	36 days (except public transport)	20 Jan	03 Mar	44 days	5186	28
Mexico	1 days	32 days	28 Feb	27 May	90 days	78,023	8597
Colombia	−44 days^e	20 days	06 Mar	Not yet reached	Ongoing	Not yet reached	Not yet reached
India	−4 days^e	51 days	30 Jan	Not yet reached	Ongoing	Not yet reached	Not yet reached
Nigeria	−36 days^e	31 days	28 Feb	Not yet reached	Ongoing	Not yet reached	Not yet reached
Nepal	50 days^e	60 days	25 Jan	Not yet reached	Ongoing	Not yet reached	Not yet reached

^aNumber of days after the first case until the first action
^bNumber of days after the first case until the full action; full action means complete implementation to close schools, close workplaces, cancel public events, ban public gatherings, close public transportations, ban internal traveling, ban international traveling, and promote public campaigns
^cDate with the peak number of newly confirmed cases; if the event with the highest number of daily cases was on May 30 or thereafter, it was considered “not yet reached” the peak
^dNumber of days after the first case until the peak date with the highest number of cases; if the peak was “not yet reached,” the critical period was considered “ongoing”
^eMinus values in the delay to the first action mean the countries started with initial containment measures before the first case was confirmed

ISSN: 1471-2334