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Table 3 Impact of lockdown and extended household quarantine, combined with various testing strategies, for a community of 1000 people

From: Modelling testing and response strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in remote Australian Aboriginal communities

Strategy No lockdown Full lockdown
  Total cumulative infections Quarantine person-days (first year) Total tests performed during outbreak (first year) Total cumulative infections Quarantine person-days (first year) Total tests performed during outbreak (first year)
Quarantine of extended household contacts (no clearance testing) 831.5 (751.0, 871.0) 86,825.0 (70,334.5—97,662.5) 4042.5 (3463—4305) 829.0 (712.0, 866.5) 85,283.0 (69,397.0, 92,022.5) 3927.5 (3434.5, 4156.0)
Quarantine of extended household contacts with clearance testing from quarantine 655.0 (267.5, 821.0) 50,958.0 (13,511.5, 67,786.0) 13,551.5 (4929.5, 16,729.5) 88.5 (20.0, 432.5) 5253.5 (1660.5, 24,531.0) 1402.0 (344.5, 7564.0)
Quarantine of extended household AND clearance testing for entire community N/A N/A N/A 35.0 (9.0, 62.5) 3469.0 (1431.5, 5602.5) 2498.0 (2169.5, 2823.5)
  1. The effect on size of outbreak (total cumulative infections), quarantine person-days (per 1000 population), and total tests performed during outbreak are shown. Medians are reported, with interquartile ranges (in brackets) from 100 simulations. Note that quarantine of the entire community without lockdown is not investigated here as it would involve the testing and/or quarantine of individuals who have no exposure history and this is not recommended under current public health guidelines