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Table 1 Impact of delay to initial case identification

From: Modelling testing and response strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in remote Australian Aboriginal communities

Population size

One case identified

Two cases identified

Five cases identified

Current infected individuals

Cumulative infected individuals

Current infected individuals

Cumulative infected individuals

Current infected individuals

Cumulative infected individuals

100

9 (5, 16)

32 (15, 47)

18 (11, 25)

52 (38, 65)

37 (28, 46)

84 (71, 90)

500

7 (2, 15)

29 (9, 55)

20 (12, 30)

73 (50, 104)

48 (37, 63)

162 (134, 207)

1000

6 (3, 14)

27 (10, 59)

19 (11, 27)

72 (46, 100)

50 (33, 68)

184 (131, 235)

3500

7 (4, 11)

22 (9, 42)

18 (11, 25)

66 (44, 105)

49 (35, 67)

187 (144, 247)

  1. Scenarios are shown for a range of community sizes, summarising the number of currently infected individuals and the cumulative number of infected individuals present by the time that the initial one, two or five cases are identified. Medians with interquartile ranges (in brackets) are reported from 100 simulations