Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and related social distancing regulations on social contact and SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential in rural South Africa: analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys

McCreesh, Nicky; Dlamini, Vuyiswa; Edwards, Anita; Olivier, Stephen; Dayi, Njabulo; Dikgale, Keabetswe; Nxumalo, Siyabonga; Dreyer, Jaco; Baisley, Kathy; Siedner, Mark J.; White, Richard G.; Herbst, Kobus; Grant, Alison D.; Harling, Guy

doi:10.1186/s12879-021-06604-8

Table 2 Mean close contact numbers by respondent characteristics

From: Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and related social distancing regulations on social contact and SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential in rural South Africa: analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys

	2019		2020 R1		p-value	2020 R2		p-value
All contacts	7.4	[7.1–7.7]	4.2	[3.5–5.0]	< 0.001	4.3	[3.3–5.8]	< 0.001
Age
15–29	8.1	[7.6–8.6]	4.7	[3.3–6.8]	< 0.001	4.6	[3.5–5.9]	< 0.001
30–49	7.0	[6.7–7.4]	3.6	[2.9–4.4]	< 0.001	4.0	[3.2–5.1]	< 0.001
50–64	7.2	[6.5–8.0]	4.8	[3.7–6.2]	0.001	4.8	[3.7–6.2]	0.001
65 +	6.1	[5.5–6.7]	3.3	[2.7–4.0]	< 0.001	3.4	[2.7–4.2]	< 0.001
Sex
Male	7.1	[6.7–7.5]	4.6	[3.3–6.3]	0.001	3.4	[2.6–4.5]	< 0.001
Female	7.6	[7.3–8.0]	4.0	[3.3–4.7]	< 0.001	4.9	[4.2–5.6]	< 0.001
Household size
1–3	6.1	[5.4–6.9]	2.6	[2.0–3.3]	< 0.001	2.2	[1.4–3.4]	< 0.001
4–6	6.9	[6.4–7.4]	4.0	[3.4–4.8]	< 0.001	4.0	[3.3–4.8]	< 0.001
7–9	7.6	[7.1–8.2]	4.2	[3.4–5.1]	< 0.001	4.7	[3.9–5.7]	< 0.001
10 +	8.3	[7.9–8.8]	5.8	[3.6–9.2]	0.054	6.0	[4.6–7.7]	0.002
Residence
Urban/peri-urban	7.1	[6.7–7.5]	4.5	[3.6–5.7]	< 0.001	4.4	[3.3–5.8]	< 0.001
Rural	7.7	[7.3–8.1]	4.0	[3.1–5.2]	< 0.001	4.4	[3.8–5.0]	< 0.001
All household members	4.6	[4.5–4.8]	3.4	[3.0–3.9]	< 0.001	3.8	[3.3–4.4]	0.01
Age
15–29	4.8	[4.6–5.1]	3.6	[2.7–4.8]	0.018	4.1	[3.0–5.4]	0.19
30–49	4.4	[4.2–4.7]	2.9	[2.3–3.6]	< 0.001	3.6	[2.7–4.6]	0.066
50–64	4.5	[4.2–4.9]	4.2	[3.3–5.5]	0.58	4.0	[3.2–5.1]	0.032
65 +	4.6	[4.1–5.1]	3.0	[2.5–3.7]	< 0.001	3.1	[2.5–3.9]	0.001
Sex
Male	3.9	[3.7–4.1]	3.3	[2.7–4.1]	0.090	2.7	[2.0–3.6]	0.002
Female	5.1	[4.9–5.4]	3.5	[2.9–4.2]	< 0.001	4.5	[3.9–5.2]	0.073
Household size
1–3	3.2	[2.9–3.5]	1.6	[1.2–2.2]	< 0.001	1.5	[1.0–2.4]	< 0.001
4–6	3.9	[3.7–4.2]	3.4	[2.9–3.9]	0.025	3.3	[2.7–4.2]	0.11
7–9	4.8	[4.6–5.1]	3.8	[3.1–4.6]	0.012	4.5	[3.7–5.5]	0.50
10 +	5.7	[5.4–6.1]	4.5	[3.1–6.6]	0.15	5.3	[4.1–6.8]	0.52
Residence
Urban/peri-urban	4.3	[4.1–4.6]	3.8	[2.9–4.9]	0.298	3.7	[2.7–5.0]	0.26
Rural	5.0	[4.8–5.3]	3.3	[2.8–3.9]	< 0.001	4.0	[3.4–4.7]	< 0.001
All non-household members	2.8	[2.6–3.1]	0.78	[0.44–1.4]	< 0.001	0.52	[0.52–0.32]	< 0.001
Age
15–29	3.3	[2.9–3.7]	1.2	[0.42–3.2]	< 0.001	0.52	[0.52–0.19]	< 0.001
30–49	2.7	[2.4–3.0]	0.69	[0.40–1.2]	< 0.001	0.48	[0.48–0.20]	< 0.001
50–64	2.7	[2.0–3.5]	0.53	[0.24–1.1]	< 0.001	0.76	[0.76–0.39]	< 0.001
65 +	1.6	[1.2–2.1]	0.28	[0.14–0.54]	< 0.001	0.26	[0.26–0.10]	< 0.001
Sex
Male	3.3	[2.9–3.7]	1.3	[0.53–3.1]	< 0.001	0.79	[0.79–0.41]	< 0.001
Female	2.5	[2.2–2.9]	0.48	[0.31–0.75]	< 0.001	0.36	[0.36–0.18]	< 0.001
Household size
1–3	3.0	[2.4–3.8]	1.0	[0.59–1.6]	< 0.001	0.62	[0.62–0.25]	< 0.001
4–6	3.0	[2.5–3.5]	0.66	[0.38–1.2]	< 0.001	0.68	[0.68–0.32]	< 0.001
7–9	2.8	[2.4–3.4]	0.37	[0.16–0.85]	< 0.001	0.20	[0.20–0.06]	< 0.001
10 +	2.6	[2.3–3.0]	1.3	[0.32–5.1]	0.13	0.67	[0.67–0.23]	< 0.001
Residence
Urban/peri-urban	2.8	[2.5–3.1]	0.73	[0.45–1.2]	< 0.001	0.71	[0.71–0.38]	< 0.001
Rural	2.7	[2.4–3.0]	0.70	[0.24–2.1]	< 0.001	0.39	[0.39–0.16]	< 0.001

Values are means with 95% confidence intervals in brackets. p-values are for comparisons within rows vs. 2019 data

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