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Table 5 Prediction model results

From: A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú

  Season El Niño AUC (95% CI)
Stage 1 S 0.901 (0.874, 0.929)
W 0.885 (0.853, 0.918)
S Y 0.877 (0.842, 0.913)
S N 0.859 (0.795, 0.922)
W Y 0.914 (0.883, 0.944)
W N 0.927 (0.904, 0.950)
Stage 2 S 0.867 (0.828, 0.905)
W 0.824 (0.767, 0.882)
S Y 0.758 (0.689, 0.827)
S N 0.905 (0.862, 0.949)
W Y 0.889 (0.851, 0.927)
W N 0.866 (0.822, 0.910)
Stage 3 S 0.673 (0.598, 0.747)
W 0.608 (0.526, 0.690)
S Y 0.580 (0.490, 0.670)
S N 0.679 (0.530, 0.828)
W Y 0.658 (0.564, 0.753)
W N 0.614 (0.521, 0.707)
  1. Prediction results from logistic regression models trained to two-thirds of the outcome data, and tested on remaining one-third. Outcome parameterized as one or more outbreaks in a given district over January 2016–September 2018. Stage 1: index case potential; stage 2: outbreak receptivity; stage 3: epidemic potential.AUC area under ROC curve,CI posterior credible interval, S summer; W winter, Y yes, N no