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Table 1 Regression coefficient for HRSV activity: the results of a multivariate analysis

From: Decreased human respiratory syncytial virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: an ecological time-series analysis

  

Model 0b

Model 1c

Model 2d

Model 3e

Variable

Lag (months)a

Coef.

p

Coef.

p

Coef.

p

Coef.

p

NPI indicator

 Retail sales of hand hygiene productsf

0–1

  

−0.29

0.003

    

 Domestic airline passenger arrivalsg

1–2

    

3.8 × 10− 4

< 0.001

  

 International airline passenger arrivalsh

1–2

      

1.2 × 10−3

< 0.001

Other covariates

 Average temperaturei

3–4

0.06

< 0.001

0.06

< 0.001

0.04

0.001

0.07

< 0.001

 Relative humidityj

1–2

0.05

0.06

0.04

0.08

0.05

0.007

0.05

0.02

 Intercept

 

−4.26

0.01

−1.89

0.32

−7.17

< 0.001

−5.82

< 0.001

Year

 2014

 

Ref.

 

Ref.

 

Ref.

Ref.

 2015

 

0.20

0.52

0.20

0.51

0.24

0.33

0.09

0.72

 2016

 

0.13

0.96

0.05

0.86

−0.02

0.91

−0.37

0.16

 2017

 

0.49

0.13

0.60

0.06

0.30

0.24

−0.03

0.90

 2018

 

0.47

0.16

0.57

0.08

0.24

0.34

−0.23

0.44

 2019

 

0.53

0.11

0.68

0.04

0.18

0.48

−0.20

0.49

 2020

 

−1.55

< 0.001

−0.63

0.19

−0.66

0.04

−1.07

0.001

Model statistics

 α

 

0.50

0.47

0.30

0.32

 AIC

 

3.63

3.60

3.47

3.50

  1. Abbreviations: Coef. regression coefficient, se standard deviation, AIC Akaike information criterion, α dispersion parameter
  2. a Moving average
  3. b Adjusted for monthly average temperature at a lag of 3–4 months, monthly relative humidity at lag a of 1–2 months, and year variables (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020)
  4. c Generalized linear gamma regression model adjusted for the monthly retail sales of hand hygiene products per ¥1 billion at a lag of 0–1 months, monthly average temperature at a lag of 3–4 months, monthly relative humidity at a lag of 1–2 months, and year variables (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020)
  5. d Generalized linear gamma regression model adjusted for monthly number of domestic airline passenger arrivals per 1000 population at a lag of 1–2 months, monthly average temperature at a lag of 3–4 months, monthly relative humidity at a lag of 1–2 months, and year variables (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020)
  6. e Generalized linear gamma regression model adjusted for number of international airline passenger arrivals per 1000 population at a lag of 1–2 months, monthly average temperature at a lag of 3–4 months, monthly relative humidity at a lag of 1–2 months, and year variables (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020)
  7. f Retail sales of hand hygiene products per ¥1 billion (unit: yen)
  8. g Number of domestic airline passenger arrivals per 1000 population (unit: person)
  9. h Number of international airline passenger arrivals per 1000 population (unit: person)
  10. i Average temperature (unit: °C)
  11. j Relative humidity (unit: %)
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BMC Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 1471-2334

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