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Table 1 Regression coefficient for HRSV activity: the results of a multivariate analysis

From: Decreased human respiratory syncytial virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: an ecological time-series analysis

   Model 0b Model 1c Model 2d Model 3e
Variable Lag (months)a Coef. p Coef. p Coef. p Coef. p
NPI indicator
 Retail sales of hand hygiene productsf 0–1    −0.29 0.003     
 Domestic airline passenger arrivalsg 1–2      3.8 × 10− 4 < 0.001   
 International airline passenger arrivalsh 1–2        1.2 × 10−3 < 0.001
Other covariates
 Average temperaturei 3–4 0.06 < 0.001 0.06 < 0.001 0.04 0.001 0.07 < 0.001
 Relative humidityj 1–2 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.08 0.05 0.007 0.05 0.02
 Intercept   −4.26 0.01 −1.89 0.32 −7.17 < 0.001 −5.82 < 0.001
Year
 2014   Ref.   Ref.   Ref. Ref.
 2015   0.20 0.52 0.20 0.51 0.24 0.33 0.09 0.72
 2016   0.13 0.96 0.05 0.86 −0.02 0.91 −0.37 0.16
 2017   0.49 0.13 0.60 0.06 0.30 0.24 −0.03 0.90
 2018   0.47 0.16 0.57 0.08 0.24 0.34 −0.23 0.44
 2019   0.53 0.11 0.68 0.04 0.18 0.48 −0.20 0.49
 2020   −1.55 < 0.001 −0.63 0.19 −0.66 0.04 −1.07 0.001
Model statistics
α   0.50 0.47 0.30 0.32
 AIC   3.63 3.60 3.47 3.50
  1. Abbreviations: Coef. regression coefficient, se standard deviation, AIC Akaike information criterion, α dispersion parameter
  2. a Moving average
  3. b Adjusted for monthly average temperature at a lag of 3–4 months, monthly relative humidity at lag a of 1–2 months, and year variables (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020)
  4. c Generalized linear gamma regression model adjusted for the monthly retail sales of hand hygiene products per ¥1 billion at a lag of 0–1 months, monthly average temperature at a lag of 3–4 months, monthly relative humidity at a lag of 1–2 months, and year variables (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020)
  5. d Generalized linear gamma regression model adjusted for monthly number of domestic airline passenger arrivals per 1000 population at a lag of 1–2 months, monthly average temperature at a lag of 3–4 months, monthly relative humidity at a lag of 1–2 months, and year variables (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020)
  6. e Generalized linear gamma regression model adjusted for number of international airline passenger arrivals per 1000 population at a lag of 1–2 months, monthly average temperature at a lag of 3–4 months, monthly relative humidity at a lag of 1–2 months, and year variables (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020)
  7. f Retail sales of hand hygiene products per ¥1 billion (unit: yen)
  8. g Number of domestic airline passenger arrivals per 1000 population (unit: person)
  9. h Number of international airline passenger arrivals per 1000 population (unit: person)
  10. i Average temperature (unit: °C)
  11. j Relative humidity (unit: %)