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Table 1 Defnition of the different parameters and their priors and posteriors based on current literature [8,9,10,11] (see also Fig. A1). For priors, some upper bound and/or lower bound have been imposed by the observations. U is for uniform distribution and tN for truncated normal distribution (tN [mean,std.,limit inf,limit sup])

From: Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland under mitigation

Parameters Definitions Prior or
constant value
Posterior
Median, [95%CI]
I1(0) Initial condition U[5,100] 42, [18–81]
S(0) Initial condition N = 5,176,000  
E1(0), E2(0), I2(0), A1(0), A2(0), Initial conditions Use of steady-state conditions a  
Other Initial Conditions Initials conditions 0  
β(0) Initial condition of the transmission rate 0.70  
ν Volatility of the Brownian process U[0.05,015] 0.133, [0.107–0.149]
1/σ average duration of the incubation tN[4,0.1,3,5] 3.99, [3.80–4.19]
1/γ average duration of infectious period tN[6,0.2,4.5,7.5] 6.00, [5.61–6.40]
1/κ average hospitalized period U [8, 20] 13.60, [12.15–15.15]
1/δ average time in ICU U [8, 20] 17.36, [14.86–19.57]
τA fraction of asymptomatics U[0.30,0.70] 0.487, [0.310–0.685]
τH fraction of hospitalization U[0.02,0.10] 0.027, [0.020–0.046]
τI fraction of ICU admission U[0.05,0.15] 0.030, [0.023–0.045]
τ death rate U[0.10,0.70] 0.411, [0.365–0.458]
q1 reduction of transmissibility 1.5. q2 but≤1  
q2 reduction of transmissibility 0.55 [8]  
qI reduction of ICU admission fraction 0.10  
qD reduction of the death rate 0.20  
ρI reporting rate for symptomatic infectious U[0.02, 0.15] 0.092, [0.062–0.142]
ρH reporting rate for hospitalized people U[0.95,1] 0.971, [0.951–0.997]
ρICU reporting rate for the ICU admission 0.96  
ρG reporting rate for hospital discharge 0.96  
ρD reporting rate for death 0.98  
  1. a steady-state conditions are defined by: \( \frac{d{E}_1}{dt}=\frac{d{E}_2}{dt}=\frac{d{I}_2}{dt}=\frac{d{A}_1}{dt}=\frac{d{A}_2}{dt}=0 \)