Table 1 Defnition of the different parameters and their priors and posteriors based on current literature [8,9,10,11] (see also Fig. A1). For priors, some upper bound and/or lower bound have been imposed by the observations. U is for uniform distribution and tN for truncated normal distribution (tN [mean,std.,limit inf,limit sup])

I₁(0)

Initial condition

U[5,100]

42, [18–81]

S(0)

Initial condition

N = 5,176,000

E₁(0), E₂(0), I₂(0), A₁(0), A₂(0),

Initial conditions

Use of steady-state conditions ^a

Other Initial Conditions

Initials conditions

0

β(0)

Initial condition of the transmission rate

0.70

ν

Volatility of the Brownian process

U[0.05,015]

0.133, [0.107–0.149]

1/σ

average duration of the incubation

tN[4,0.1,3,5]

3.99, [3.80–4.19]

1/γ

average duration of infectious period

tN[6,0.2,4.5,7.5]

6.00, [5.61–6.40]

1/κ

average hospitalized period

U [8, 20]

13.60, [12.15–15.15]

1/δ

average time in ICU

U [8, 20]

17.36, [14.86–19.57]

τ_A

fraction of asymptomatics

U[0.30,0.70]

0.487, [0.310–0.685]

τ_H

fraction of hospitalization

U[0.02,0.10]

0.027, [0.020–0.046]

τ_I

fraction of ICU admission

U[0.05,0.15]

0.030, [0.023–0.045]

τ_□

death rate

U[0.10,0.70]

0.411, [0.365–0.458]

q₁

reduction of transmissibility

1.5. q₂ but≤1

q₂

reduction of transmissibility

0.55 [8]

q_I

reduction of ICU admission fraction

0.10

q_D

reduction of the death rate

0.20

ρ_I

reporting rate for symptomatic infectious

U[0.02, 0.15]

0.092, [0.062–0.142]

ρ_H

reporting rate for hospitalized people

U[0.95,1]

0.971, [0.951–0.997]

ρ_ICU

reporting rate for the ICU admission

0.96

ρ_G

reporting rate for hospital discharge

0.96

ρ_D

reporting rate for death

0.98