Parameter | Implication | Value | Sources |
---|---|---|---|
β0 | The transmission rate of symptomatic infectious before Jan 23 | 0.43 (95%CI: 0.428–0.431) | Estimated |
βend | The minimum transmission rate of symptomatic infectious under interventions after Jan 23 | 0.05 (95%CI: 0.049–0.051) | Estimated |
r | Exponential decreasing rate of transmission rate of symptomatic infectious under interventions after Jan 23 | 0.072 (95%CI: 0.0715–0.0728) | Estimated |
fE | The fitted transmission rate with respect to exposed individuals | 1/3 | Ref [7] |
fA | The fitted transmission rate with respect to asymptomatic infectious | 1/3 | Ref [7] |
fC | The fitted transmission rate with respect to home isolated symptomatic infectious | 1 | Assumed |
1/σ | Incubation period | 5.2 | |
ρ | The probability that each exposed individual enters the symptomatic compartments | 0.82 | Ref [11] |
1/γI | The average duration of the infection of symptomatic infectious | 12 | Ref [10] |
1/γA | The average duration of the infection of asymptomatic infectious | 7 | Ref [10] |
1/γC | The average duration of the infection of home isolated symptomatic infectious | 11 | Ref [10] |
1/γQ | The average isolated period of quarantine isolated symptomatic infectious | 14 | Ref [10] |
1/γF | The average hospital day of symptomatic infectious in Fangcang shelter hospitals | 20 | Ref [10] |
1/γH | The average hospital day of symptomatic infectious in hospitals | 10 | Ref [10] |
αI | Disease-induced death rate of symptomatic infectious estimated | 0.0087 (95%CI: 0.007–0.01) | Estimated |
αH | Disease-induced death rate of symptomatic infectious in hospitals | 0.0057 (95%CI: 0.0051–0.0061) | Estimated |
1/δic | The average day from symptom onset to clinical diagnosed after Jan 23 | 1 | Ref [10] |
1/δcfh | The average day from clinical diagnosed to laboratory confirmed | 1 | Ref [10] |
δcq | The moving rate from community isolation to quarantine points isolation | 0.2 (95%CI: 0.19–0.21) | Estimated |
ρQ | The deteriorating rate from mild or moderate to severe illness in quarantine points | 0.2 | Ref [12] |
ρF | The deteriorating rate from mild or moderate to severe illness in Fangcang shelter hospitals | 0.05 | Ref [12] |
θ | The ratio of the beds used to isolate symptomatic infectious individuals in quarantine points | 0.09 (95%CI: 0.08–0.11) | Estimated |