Fig. 5
From: Characterizing all-cause excess mortality patterns during COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico
Model-based forecast of excess number of deaths for first 4 weeks of 2021, Mexico. Blue circles are the estimates of excess mortality rate and model fit based on generalized logistic growth model are shown by the black line. The red dashed lines represent the upper and lower bound of 95% prediction interval. The vertical dashed black line denotes the end of calibration period and start of forecasting period