Fig. 4

Estimated parameters and prediction using three different models: The x-axis denotes the terminal time t of data collection for which we have computed three different quantities as time passes. The duration of infectious period 1/γ(t) and transmission rate β(t) were estimated by fitting the model prediction to the number of cases as the data collection period increased. Then the basic reproduction number was obtained by computing β(t)N/γ(t) with the estimated parameters, where N represented the size of total population. And the effective reproduction number was calculated through β(t)S(t)/γ(t) using the model prediction S(t) with estimated parameters