Table 1 Parameter estimates of the SEIQR epidemic model. The definitions of the parameters are described. The mean value and 95% credible interval (CI) of the posterior distribution of each of the parameters are included. Convergence is diagnosed to have occurred when the value of Gelman-Rubin convergence is close to 1 or the ESS is larger than 200
Parameters | Definition | Mean | 95% CI | Gelman-Rubin convergence | ESS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/σ | Incubation period (days) | 5.68 | (2.46, 8.03) | 1.006 | 261.56 |
η | Latent period (days) | 2.82 | (1.10, 5.40) | 1.005 | 309.46 |
1/q | Time between symptom onset and quarantine start (days) | 5.44 | (1.99, 9.76) | 1.003 | 477.50 |
α | Transportation restriction coefficient | −1.96 | (−2.90, −1.21) | 1.003 | 411.77 |
β0 | Basic transmission rate without transportation restrictions | 0.67 | (0.44, 0.97) | 1.001 | 293.01 |
p1(hosp _ diag| m) | Hospital diagnostic rate from Jan 11 to Jan 26 | 0.14 | (0.01, 0.54) | 1.002 | 396.84 |
p2(hosp _ diag| m) | Hospital diagnostic rate from Jan 27 to Feb 11 | 0.35 | (0.05, 0.78) | 1.008 | 571.52 |
p3(hosp _ diag| m) | Hospital diagnostic rate from Feb 12 to Mar 10 | 0.61 | (0.09, 0.98) | 1.004 | 557.22 |