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Table 1 Overview of the model parameters

From: A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

Quantity Median (95% CI) Distribution Source
Latent period (ε) 1.4 days ([0:7] days) Exponential [21, 60]
Pre-symptomatic period (θ) 2.4 days ([0:13] days) Exponential [21, 60]
Children infectivity (wrt adults) 0.5 [4, 23, 28, 61]
Proportion asymptomatic (pa) 0.5 [28, 6163]
Proportion mild symptoms (pm) 0.5/0.476 (children/adults) [23, 28, 61, 62]
Proportion severe symptoms (ps) 0 /0.024 (children/adults) [9]
Symptomatic/asymptomatic period (μ) 2.4 days ([0:13] days) Exponential [53]
Symptom onset to hospitalization (σ) 4.7 days ([0:17] days) Weibull [53]
Hospital admission to death (ξ) 4 days ([1:9] days) Log-logistic [53]
Hospital admission to recovery (τ) 5 days ([1:10] days) Weibull [53]
Fitted parameter Point estimate (95% CI)  
Per-contact    
transmission probability (β) 0.0449 [0.0446:0.0451]  
Number of initial infected 14480 [12750:16217]  
Lockdown reduction in number of contacts 85% [81%:89%]  
Time to reach full compliance 7 days [7:7] days