Table 1 Table of Parameters
Parameter | Description | Value | Resources |
|---|---|---|---|
β1 | transmission rate on and before 1/23/2020 | Fitted | - |
β2 | transmission rate from 1/24/2020 to 2/1/2020 | Fitted | - |
β3 | transmission rate on and after 2/2/2020 | Fitted | - |
γ1 | isolation rate on and before 1/23/2020 | 1/9.1 day−1 | [37] |
γ2 | isolation rate from 1/24/2020 to 2/6/2020 | Varied | [13] |
γ3 | isolation rate on and after 2/7/2020 | Fitted | - |
q1 | fraction of observable cases on and before 1/23/2020 | Fitted | - |
q2 | fraction of observable cases from 1/24/2020 to 2/17/2020 | Fitted | - |
q3 | fraction of observable cases on and after 2/18/2020 | 1.0 | |
ϕ0 | detection and report rate on and before 1/10/2020 | 1/13.9 day−1 | [15] |
ϕ1 | detection and report rate from 1/11/2020 to 1/23/2020 | 1/5.9 day−1 | [15] |
ϕ2 | detection and report rate from 1/24/2020 to 2/2/2020 | 1/11 day−1 | [15] |
ϕ3 | detection and report rate from 2/3/2020 to 2/16/2020 | 1/7 day−1 | [15] |
ϕ4 | detection and report rate on and after 2/17/2020 | 1/4 day−1 | [15] |
μ | recovery rate | 1/14 day−1 | [42] |
σ | infectiousness development rate | 1/5.2 day−1 | |
f | fraction of symptomatic cases | Varied | |
p | reduced transmissibility of asymptomatic individuals | Varied | |
m | net population migration rate from 1/10/2020 to 1/23/2020 | 0.03155 day−1 | Calculated |
N1 | total population in Wuhan on and before 1/23/2020 | 14 million | [38] |
N2 | total population in Wuhan on and after 1/24/2020 | 9 million | [38] |