Fig. 6
Posterior distributions of fitted parameters in Phase I under various scenarios. We performed fittings in a total of 81 scenarios about different assumed pairs of (f,p) for Phase I and selected 9 scenarios for f,p=0.3,0.5,0.7 in the presentation. The estimated values of transmission rate β1 are smaller given larger fraction of symptomatic individuals (f) or larger infectiousness of the asymptomatic individuals (p). The posterior distributions of the unobserved case fractions are independent from the assumed (f,p) pair