Fig. 3
a Goodness of fit for simulations under various assumptions on (f,p) and with \(\gamma _{2}^{-1}=3\,\text {days}\). b Numbers of patients isolated from Feb 6 to Mar 10, 2020 - the operation period of Fangcang shelter hospitals. The simulations were done based on f=0.9, p=0.1 and with various γ2 values. c Numbers of new infections in various phases. Simulations were carried out based on \(f=0.9,\,p=0.1,\,\gamma _{2}^{-1}=3\,\text {days}\). d Ratios between β2 and β1 under all assumptions. The plot represents the distribution of a total of 324 ratios \(\overline {\beta _{2}}/\overline {\beta _{1}}\), where \(\overline {\beta _{1}}\) (\(\overline {\beta _{2}}\)) is the posterior median of β1 (β2) from Phase I (Phase II) fitting under each combination of (f,p,γ2). e Posterior medians of q2 under all assumptions. The plot shows the distribution of the posterior medians of q2 from Phase II fitting under all combinations of (f,p,γ2)