Table 4 Projected counts of reported cumulative cases and total (sum of reported and unreported) counts of cases and deaths (cumulative) from the models under comparison
From: A comparison of five epidemiological models for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in India
Counts | Model | October 31, 2020 | November 30, 2020 | December 31, 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Projected cumulative reported counts (95% CrI) for specific dates in test periodc | ||||
Cumulative cases (in millions) | Observed | 8.18 | 9.46 | 10.29 |
Baseline | 8.71 (8.63–8.80) | 11.12 (10.83–11.43) | 13.34 (12.81–13.93) | |
eSIR | 8.35 (7.19–9.60) | 10.91 (8.38–13.93) | 14.85 (9.88–21.81) | |
SAPHIRE | 8.17 (7.90–8.52) | 8.93 (8.17–9.67) | 9.26 (8.19–10.35) | |
SEIR-fansy | 8.51 (8.18–8.85) | 9.91 (9.54–10.30) | 10.97 (10.57–11.4) | |
Projected total countsa (95% CrI) [under-reporting factorb] for specific dates in test periodc | ||||
Active cases (in millions) | Observed | 0.57 | 0.44 | 0.26 |
SEIR-fansy | 5.32 (5.12–5.52) [9.3] | 3.99 (3.85–4.14) [9.13] | 2.96 (2.85–3.06) [11.53] | |
Cumulative cases (in millions) | Observed | 8.18 | 9.46 | 10.29 |
SAPHIREd | 578.21 (46.41–1134.20) [70.7] | 612.79 (52.253–1161.26) [64.8] | 622.32 (55.79–1163.17) [60.5] | |
SEIR-fansy | 59.32 (56.8–61.72) [7.25] | 68.71 (65.95–71.47) [7.26] | 75.89 (72.89–78.86) [7.38] | |
ICMd | 37.17 (24.78–58.68) [4.54] | 39.54 (25.63–63.12) [4.18] | 41.38 (26.02–67.88) [4.02] | |
Cumulative deaths (thousands) | Observed | 121.56 | 137.07 | 148.43 |
SEIR-fansy | 361.52 (347.23–375.85) [2.97] | 442.25 (425.05–459.64) [3.23] | 504.76 (485.50–524.07) [3.4] | |