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Table 4 Projected counts of reported cumulative cases and total (sum of reported and unreported) counts of cases and deaths (cumulative) from the models under comparison

From: A comparison of five epidemiological models for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in India

Counts Model October 31, 2020 November 30, 2020 December 31, 2020
Projected cumulative reported counts (95% CrI) for specific dates in test periodc
 Cumulative cases (in millions) Observed 8.18 9.46 10.29
Baseline 8.71 (8.63–8.80) 11.12 (10.83–11.43) 13.34 (12.81–13.93)
eSIR 8.35 (7.19–9.60) 10.91 (8.38–13.93) 14.85 (9.88–21.81)
SAPHIRE 8.17 (7.90–8.52) 8.93 (8.17–9.67) 9.26 (8.19–10.35)
SEIR-fansy 8.51 (8.18–8.85) 9.91 (9.54–10.30) 10.97 (10.57–11.4)
Projected total countsa (95% CrI) [under-reporting factorb] for specific dates in test periodc
 Active cases (in millions) Observed 0.57 0.44 0.26
SEIR-fansy 5.32 (5.12–5.52) [9.3] 3.99 (3.85–4.14) [9.13] 2.96 (2.85–3.06) [11.53]
 Cumulative cases (in millions) Observed 8.18 9.46 10.29
SAPHIREd 578.21 (46.41–1134.20) [70.7] 612.79 (52.253–1161.26) [64.8] 622.32 (55.79–1163.17) [60.5]
SEIR-fansy 59.32 (56.8–61.72) [7.25] 68.71 (65.95–71.47) [7.26] 75.89 (72.89–78.86) [7.38]
ICMd 37.17 (24.78–58.68) [4.54] 39.54 (25.63–63.12) [4.18] 41.38 (26.02–67.88) [4.02]
 Cumulative deaths (thousands) Observed 121.56 137.07 148.43
SEIR-fansy 361.52 (347.23–375.85) [2.97] 442.25 (425.05–459.64) [3.23] 504.76 (485.50–524.07) [3.4]
  1. aProjected total count includes both reported as well as unreported values
  2. bDefined as projected total/observed reported counts, where total is the sum of reported and unreported cases
  3. cThe test period extends from October 16 till December 31, 2020. We examine projections of cumulative cases and counts on three specific dates within that period, namely, October 31, November 30 and December 31, 2020
  4. dThe SAPHIRE model does not yield projections of active cases or cumulative deaths while the ICM model does not yield projections of cumulative reported cases, total active cases or total cumulative deaths