Table 2 Comparison of estimated time-varying R_t and prediction accuracy of the models under consideration

 Lockdown 1.0 (March 25 – April 14)

–

2.12 [1.44, 2.16]

2.54 [2.41, 2.74]

5.03 [5.01, 5.04]

1.77 [1.58, 1.96]

 Lockdown 2.0 (April 15 – May 3)

1.48 [1.00, 1.51]

1.60 [1.36, 2.17]

1.90 [1.89, 1.91]

1.22 [1.18, 1.27]

 Lockdown 3.0 (May 4 – May 17)

0.87 [0.59, 0.89]

1.69 [1.46, 1.97]

2.71 [2.67, 2.73]

1.33 [1.28, 1.38]

 Lockdown 4.0 (May 18 – May 31)

0.89 [0.61, 0.91]

1.54 [1.29, 2.00]

2.33 [2.30, 2.36]

1.41 [1.35, 1.47]

 Unlock 1.0 (June 1 – June 30)

0.85 [0.58, 0.87]

1.27 [1.19, 1.32]

1.74 [1.73, 1.75]

1.05 [0.99, 1.10]

 Unlock 2.0 (July 1 – July 31)

0.77 [0.52, 0.78]

1.31 [1.22, 1.36]

1.80 [1.79, 1.81]

1.11 [1.08, 1.14]

 Unlock 3.0 (August 1 – August 31)

0.79 [0.54, 0.81]

1.16 [1.06, 1.31]

1.25 [1.24, 1.26]

1.05 [1.04, 1.07]

 Unlock 4.0 (September 1 – September 30)

0.69 [0.47, 0.7]

1.12 [0.98, 1.49]

1.06 [1.05, 1.07]

0.89 [0.86, 0.91]

 Unlock 5.0 (October 1 – October 15)

0.67 [0.45, 0.68]

1.09 [0.91, 1.69]

0.86 [0.85, 0.87]

0.83 [0.82, 0.84]

 Active reported cases

–

37.955 (2.283)

–

35.141 (1.114)

–

 Cumulative reported cases

6.889 (0.173)

6.593 (0.198)

2.250 (0.056)

2.285 (0.048)

 Cumulative reported deaths

–

8.943 (0.253)

–

4.737 (0.115)

0.771 (0.020)