Table 4 Multivariable predictive model for 30-day mortality: Clinical variables, and added predictive value of day 4 cytokines
Model (Sample Size) | Odds Ratio (95% CI) | p-value | AUC (95% CI) | p-value for AUC difference from clinical model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Clinical variable model (576) | ||||
CAD | 2.93 (1.42, 6.08) | 0.004 | ||
Septic shock at onset of SAB | 4.92 (2.35, 10.29) | < 0.0001 | ||
PBS ≥4 (vs. < 4) | 5.44 (2.67, 11.09) | < 0.0001 | ||
0.804 (0.735, 0.873) | – | |||
Added Day 4 cytokine variables individually as quartiles a: | ||||
TNFα (581) | 0.879 (0.838, 0.920) | 0.0003 | ||
Q1: < 6.73 | Ref | |||
Q2: 6.73–12.57 | 6.89 (0.77, 61.75) | 0.73 | ||
Q3: 12.58–24.67 | 21.63 (2.69, 173.82) | < 0.01 | ||
Q4: > 24.67 | 27.7 (3.52, 217.73) | 0.0003 | ||
IL-10 (531) | 0.873 (0.817, 0.930) | 0.003 | ||
Q1: < 5.49 | Ref | |||
Q2: 5.49–13.57 | 1.71 (0.41, 7.24) | 0.32 | ||
Q3: 13.58–28.93 | 2.38 (0.63, 8.92) | 0.82 | ||
Q4: > 28.93 | 10.74 (3.28, 35.14) | < 0.0001 | ||
IL-6 (513) | 0.828 (0.765, 0.892) | 0.03 | ||
Q1: < 7.02 | Ref | |||
Q2: 7.02–19.93 | 1.53 (0.34, 6.98) | 0.21 | ||
Q3: 19.94–57.20 | 4.12 (1.07, 15.91) | 0.12 | ||
Q4: > 57.20 | 6.45 (1.74, 23.97) | 0.001 | ||
IL-8 (510) | 0.846 (0.783, 0.908) | 0.01 | ||
Q1: < 12.94 | Ref | |||
Q2: 12.94–28.05 | 0.59 (0.10, 3.54) | 0.03 | ||
Q3: 28.06–68.95 | 3.51 (0.10, 12.34) | 0.11 | ||
Q4: > 68.95 | 7.87 (2.40, 25.82) | < 0.0001 | ||