Table 3 Multivariable predictive model for persistence: Clinical variables alone and added predictive value of day 1 cytokines
Model (Sample Size) | Odds Ratio (95% CI) | p-value | AUC (95% CI) | p-value for AUC difference from clinical model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Clinical variable model (239) | ||||
Septic shock at onset of SAB | 4.09 (1.826, 9.173) | < 0.001 | 0.601 (0.537, 0.664) | – |
Added Day 1 cytokine variables individually as quartiles a: | ||||
TNFα (239) | 0.714 (0.635, 0.794) | 0.0005 | ||
Q1: < 9.54 | Ref | |||
Q2: 9.54–18.96 | 1.92 (0.6, 6.142) | 0.27 | ||
Q3: 18.97–36.85 | 2.79 (0.918, 8.475) | 0.07 | ||
Q4: > 36.85 | 6.79 (2.334, 19.758) | 0.0004 | ||
IL-10 (228) | 0.708 (0.629, 0.788) | 0.001 | ||
Q1: < 11.11 | Ref | |||
Q2: 11.11–29.96 | 1.92 (0.599, 6.139) | 0.27 | ||
Q3: 29.97–118.22 | 3.80 (1.274, 11.271) | 0.02 | ||
Q4: > 118.22 | 4.53 (1.487, 13.808) | < 0.01 | ||
IL-8 (184) | 0.666 (0.568, 0.765) | 0.02 | ||
Q1: < 18.00 | Ref | |||
Q2: 18.00–48.10 | 1.27 (0.369, 4.372) | 0.70 | ||
Q3: 48.11–128.56 | 2.09 (0.642, 6.802) | 0.22 | ||
Q4: > 128.56 | 3.60 (1.163, 11.123) | 0.03 | ||
IL-6 (182) | 0.600 (0.486–0.715) | 0.53 | ||
Q1: < 25.92 | Ref | |||
Q2: 25.92–69.56 | 0.22 (0.064, 0.745) | 0.02 | ||
Q3: 69.57–222.65 | 0.44 (0.157, 1.235) | 0.12 | ||
Q4: > 222.65 | 0.72 (0.27, 1.912) | 0.51 | ||