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Table 1 Validation of model results with WHO-published data on China between 2015 and 2017

From: Long-term impact of the adoption of bedaquiline-containing regimens on the burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis in China

ParameterValuesExternal sourceRemarks
Values output in modelValues reported by external sources
20152017% change20152017% change
Pulmonary TB prevalence1125 k1029 k−8.5%1119 k1035 k−7.5%WHO Western Pacific Region [23]See Footnote A
Pulmonary DS-TB incidence801 k782 k−2.4%813 k777 k−4.3%WHO Global Health Observatory Data Repository [24]See Footnote B
Pulmonary DR-TB incidence66 k (2016)67 k1.5% (2016–17)70 k (2016)70 k−0.2% (2016–17)See Footnote C
Pulmonary TB-associated mortality48 k46 k−3.2%37 k35 k−5.7%See Footnote D
  1. Footnote A: Prevalence rate in 2010 was reported to be 108 per 100,000 population, with a CAGR of 4.7% (http://www.wpro.who.int/china/mediacentre/factsheets/tuberculosis/en/). The analysis assumed the CAGR to be the same until 2017. The incidence rate was obtained from WHO (39). Absolute prevalence figures were calculated based on absolute incidence, and the ratio of prevalence per 100 k population to incidence rate.
  2. Footnote B: Incidence data reported by WHO (https://www.who.int/tb/publications/global_report/en/) includes non-pulmonary cases. However, ~ 95% of notified TB cases are known to be pulmonary TB cases as seen in the country profile for China in the WHO Global TB report 2018 [1]. Annual pulmonary TB rates from the notified incidence have been applied to total incidence. Additionally, DR-TB incidence has been deducted from total incidence to arrive at the DS-TB incidence.
  3. Footnote C: 73 k incident DR-TB cases were estimated for 2017. Of these, 95% were considered to be pulmonary cases (since ~ 95% of notified cases are pulmonary TB cases as seen in the country profile for China in the WHO Global TB report 2018 [1]). The model replicates the WHO-suggested trend of incidence that went up between 2015 and 2016, falling in 2017.
  4. Footnote D: Mortality data for only pulmonary cases is not available. To account for this, total TB mortality that included extra-pulmonary cases was used and the share of pulmonary cases applied.
  5. Abbreviations: CAGR compound annual growth rate; DR-TB drug-resistant tuberculosis; DS-TB drug-sensitive tuberculosis; k thousands; TB tuberculosis; WHO World Health Organization