Fig. 2

Dynamics for different interventions. Panels (a)-(c) assume no seasonal fluctuations in R₀, while panels (d)-(f) assume seasonal fluctuations. The dashed lines in (d)-(f) shows R₀(t) corresponding to the y-axis on the right. Panels (a) and (d) show the numbers of infected individuals, I(t), (b) and (e) the number of susceptible individuals S(t) and (c) and (f) the number of dead individuals. Each panels shows the dynamics under four different scenarios: no intervention (No); general contact reduction of 75% for 30 days, starting at day 30 (CR); isolation of symptomatic infections in quarantine wards (assuming a capacity of 200 per 10,000) or at home, assuming a contact reduction of 75% (Is), which start at day 30 and are sustained throughout the end of the simulation; contact reduction and isolation combined (CR+Is). The parameters used are listed in Tables 2 and 3