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Table 2 Training set and Validation Set of the Epidemic Trend in Hubei Province

From: The prediction for development of COVID-19 in global major epidemic areas through empirical trends in China by utilizing state transition matrix model

  Actual Forecast
Key Metrics   S1 S2 S3
Inc of Confirmed Cases −9.0% − 10% −10% − 5% −5% −1% − 1%
MO Release Rate 16.0% 17.0% 10.50% 17.0% 10.50% 17.0% 10.50%
Peak of Active Cases 50,633 39,612 47,148 44,082 55,150 62,041 85,502
Peak Date 2020/2/16 2020/2/23 2020/2/28 2020/3/1 2020/3/7 2020/4/6 2020/4/14
Peak of Severe Cases 9289 5753 6845 6400 8004 9000 12,402
Peak Date 2020/2/16 2020/2/23 2020/2/28 2020/3/1 2020/3/7 2020/4/6 2020/4/14
Peak of Critical Cases 2492 1786 2124 1986 2484 2793 3849
Peak Case 2020/2/21 2020/2/23 2020/2/28 2020/3/1 2020/3/7 2020/4/6 2020/4/14
Total Cases at Feb. End 66,907 54,189 64,064 60,192 71,596 68,045 81,284
  1. The actual data were extracted from HCHP, and the forecast data in the three scenarios were deduced by the STM model based on the data before Feb 9, 2020. S1: optimistic scenario; S2: cautiously optimistic scenario; S3: relatively pessimistic scenario; MO Medical observation, Inc. Increment
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