Table 3 Summary statistics for the estimated date by which 10,000 cases are reached in each African country. Reproduction numbers used for the simulation were 2.0 before and 1.5 after stay-at-home order came into force in each country. Estimates were derived under two scenarios, where the over-dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution was set at 0.10 (higher over-dispersion) and 0.58 (lower over-dispersion) respectively. Simulations were performed until 30th June, or 10,000 cases are reached, whichever is earlier, based on 1,000 model runs
From: Importations of COVID-19 into African countries and risk of onward spread
Country | Over-dispersion parameter = 0.10 | Over-dispersion parameter = 0.58 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.5 Percentile | 25 Percentile | 50 Percentile | 75 Percentile | 97.5 Percentile | 2.5 Percentile | 25 Percentile | 50 Percentile | 75 Percentile | 97.5 Percentile | |
Algeria | 03-17 | 03-19 | 03-21 | 03-22 | 03-25 | 03-18 | 03-20 | 03-20 | 03-21 | 03-24 |
Angola | 03-22 | 03-29 | 04-05 | 04-12 | 05-06 | 03-25 | 03-30 | 04-03 | 04-08 | 04-20 |
Benin | 04-04 | 04-25 | 05-20 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-07 | 04-19 | 04-28 | 05-09 | >06-30 |
Botswana | 04-18 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-21 | 05-22 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Burkina Faso | 04-04 | 04-25 | 05-14 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-12 | 04-24 | 05-01 | 05-10 | 06-16 |
Burundi | 04-10 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-13 | 04-26 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Cabo Verde | 03-24 | 04-03 | 04-10 | 04-19 | 05-30 | 03-27 | 04-03 | 04-07 | 04-12 | 04-25 |
Cameroon | 03-29 | 04-06 | 04-11 | 04-18 | >06-30 | 03-31 | 04-05 | 04-08 | 04-11 | 04-19 |
Central African Republic | 04-07 | 05-07 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-21 | 05-02 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Chad | 04-10 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-13 | 05-02 | 05-24 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Comoros | 04-09 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-09 | 04-22 | 05-09 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Congo | 04-01 | 04-18 | 05-02 | 06-10 | >06-30 | 04-06 | 04-16 | 04-22 | 05-01 | 05-30 |
Congo DRC | 04-03 | 04-22 | 05-08 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-07 | 04-18 | 04-25 | 05-05 | >06-30 |
Côte d'Ivoire | 03-27 | 04-04 | 04-08 | 04-14 | 05-14 | 03-30 | 04-03 | 04-06 | 04-08 | 04-14 |
Djibouti | 04-13 | 05-16 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-16 | 05-06 | 05-18 | 06-03 | >06-30 |
Egypt | 03-23 | 03-28 | 04-01 | 04-05 | 04-15 | 03-25 | 03-29 | 03-31 | 04-02 | 04-06 |
Equatorial Guinea | 04-03 | 04-19 | 05-01 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-09 | 04-18 | 04-23 | 04-30 | >06-30 |
Eritrea | 04-19 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-18 | 05-19 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Eswatini | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-22 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Ethiopia | 03-31 | 04-13 | 04-24 | 05-11 | >06-30 | 04-04 | 04-11 | 04-17 | 04-23 | 05-14 |
Gabon | 03-31 | 04-12 | 04-24 | 05-24 | >06-30 | 04-02 | 04-09 | 04-14 | 04-22 | 05-17 |
Gambia | 04-05 | 04-17 | 05-15 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-15 | 04-21 | 04-28 | >06-30 |
Ghana | 04-01 | 04-18 | 04-28 | 06-03 | >06-30 | 04-05 | 04-15 | 04-21 | 04-26 | 05-10 |
Guinea | 04-02 | 04-20 | 05-07 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-06 | 04-17 | 04-24 | 05-02 | 05-29 |
Guinea-Bissau | 04-01 | 04-28 | 05-26 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-05 | 04-22 | 05-03 | 05-17 | >06-30 |
Kenya | 03-29 | 04-07 | 04-15 | 04-29 | >06-30 | 04-01 | 04-07 | 04-11 | 04-16 | 05-01 |
Lesotho | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 05-24 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Liberia | 04-12 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-14 | 05-05 | 05-29 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Libya | 04-06 | 04-22 | 05-07 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-11 | 04-21 | 04-27 | 05-04 | >06-30 |
Madagascar | 04-03 | 04-21 | 05-05 | 05-29 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-19 | 04-26 | 05-03 | 05-24 |
Malawi | 04-13 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-15 | 05-12 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Mali | 03-30 | 04-08 | 04-15 | 04-25 | >06-30 | 04-01 | 04-08 | 04-11 | 04-15 | 04-25 |
Mauritania | 04-09 | 05-09 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-12 | 04-29 | 05-12 | 06-11 | >06-30 |
Mauritius | 03-27 | 04-05 | 04-11 | 04-18 | 05-09 | 03-31 | 04-05 | 04-08 | 04-12 | 04-21 |
Mayotte | 04-07 | 05-06 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-14 | 04-29 | 05-11 | 05-26 | >06-30 |
Morocco | 03-16 | 03-18 | 03-20 | 03-21 | 03-25 | 03-17 | 03-19 | 03-20 | 03-21 | 03-23 |
Mozambique | 03-28 | 04-11 | 04-23 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-01 | 04-09 | 04-14 | 04-21 | >06-30 |
Namibia | 04-06 | 05-03 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-09 | 04-23 | 05-04 | 05-14 | >06-30 |
Niger | 04-04 | 04-21 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-17 | 04-23 | 05-02 | >06-30 |
Nigeria | 03-31 | 04-14 | 04-25 | 05-10 | >06-30 | 04-05 | 04-13 | 04-19 | 04-25 | 05-08 |
Rwanda | 04-15 | 05-13 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-21 | 05-06 | 05-14 | 05-27 | >06-30 |
Réunion | 03-26 | 04-04 | 04-09 | 04-16 | 05-08 | 03-30 | 04-04 | 04-07 | 04-11 | 04-20 |
Sao Tome and Principe | 04-02 | 04-18 | 05-06 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-03 | 04-14 | 04-21 | 04-30 | >06-30 |
Senegal | 03-25 | 04-02 | 04-07 | 04-13 | 04-28 | 03-28 | 04-02 | 04-05 | 04-08 | 04-15 |
Seychelles | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Sierra Leone | 04-11 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-13 | 05-02 | 05-17 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Somalia | 04-13 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-16 | 04-30 | 05-17 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
South Africa | 03-24 | 03-30 | 04-03 | 04-08 | 04-20 | 03-26 | 03-30 | 04-02 | 04-04 | 04-10 |
South Sudan | 04-29 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-30 | 06-15 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Sudan | 04-05 | 04-17 | 04-29 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-15 | 04-20 | 04-26 | 05-28 |
Tanzania | 03-29 | 04-08 | 04-14 | 04-23 | >06-30 | 04-02 | 04-08 | 04-11 | 04-15 | 04-24 |
Togo | 04-03 | 04-26 | 06-12 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-08 | 04-20 | 04-29 | 05-11 | >06-30 |
Tunisia | 03-21 | 03-27 | 03-30 | 04-03 | 04-13 | 03-24 | 03-27 | 03-29 | 03-31 | 04-05 |
Uganda | 04-05 | 04-28 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-12 | 04-26 | 05-05 | 05-21 | >06-30 |
Zambia | 04-09 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-10 | 04-26 | 05-21 | >06-30 | >06-30 |
Zimbabwe | 04-15 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | >06-30 | 04-16 | 05-07 | 05-24 | >06-30 | >06-30 |