Fig. 4
From: Importations of COVID-19 into African countries and risk of onward spread
Estimated probability of reaching 10,000 cases as well as the reported total number of cases by each country (Stay-at-home order was assumed to reduce the reproduction number to 1.5). Reproduction number in the absence of stay-at-home order in each country was assumed to be 2. The over-dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution was (a–d) 0.10 and (e–h) 0.58 respectively. Reported total number of cases (i–l) were extracted from the World Health Organization’s situation reports.