Table 2 The optimal ARIMA model in different regions of China
From: Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China
Regions | Model | Fitting effect | LBQ test | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | Stable R2 | SBC | Q | P | ||
North China | (0,1,0) (1,0,1)12 | 0.820 | 0.830 | −1.663 | 14.257 | 0.506 |
East China | (0,1,0) (0,1,1)12 | 0.858 | 0.389 | − 1.836 | 22.050 | 0.107 |
South China | (0,1,0) (1,0,0)12 | 0.884 | 0.108 | −1.127 | 25.607 | 0.082 |
Central China | (0,1,0) (1,0,1)12 | 0.856 | 0.393 | −1.767 | 17.171 | 0.375 |
Southwest | (0,1,0) (2,0,1)12 | 0.854 | 0.700 | −1.327 | 22.808 | 0.088 |
Northwest | (1,1,1) (0,0,0)12 | 0.814 | 0.818 | −0.109 | 22.237 | 0.102 |
Northeast | (0,1,0) (1,0,1)12 | 0.822 | 0.166 | −1.749 | 14.557 | 0.627 |