Fig. 1

Number of new HIV diagnoses, and estimated HIV incidence curves, by year, Norway. Dotted line: Input data on new HIV diagnoses used in the models. Dashed line: Estimates of incidence from the ECDC HIV modelling tool using default model assumptions for CD4 distribution. Solid area: 95% confidence interval from the ECDC HIV modelling tool using default model assumptions for CD4 distribution. Solid line: Estimates of incidence from the CSAVR tool. Dotted area: Uncertainty bound from the CSAVR tool