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Table 2 Estimates and the 95% confidence intervals for parameters of joint multistate and longitudinal model

From: Modelling of viral load dynamics and CD4 cell count progression in an antiretroviral naive cohort: using a joint linear mixed and multistate Markov model

VariablesLongitudinal ProcessMulti-State Process
β (95% CI)Transition 1: Normal to Mild,
β (95% CI)
Transition 2: Mild to Advanced,
β (95% CI)
Transition 3: Advanced to Severe,
β (95% CI)
Transition 4: Severe to Advanced,
β(95% CI)
Transition 5: Advanced to Mild,
β (95% CI)
Transition 6: Mild to Normal,
β (95% CI)
Intercepts2.197 (2.016, 2.377)***1.41
(0.53, 2.28)*
1.21
(0.52, 1.91)*
2.08
(0.71, 3.46)*
2.46
(0.13, 4.79)*
− 0.01
(− 0.84, 0.83)
1.71
(0.79, 2.62)*
TB: Yes0.147 (0.045, 0.249)**0.61
(− 0.14, 1.37)
0.15
(− 0.43, 0.74)
1.50
(− 0.39, 3.39)
0.41
(− 2.42, 3.23)
− 0.47
(− 1.06, 0.12)
0.98
(− 0.24, 1.72)
Marital status: Married (stable sex partner)− 0.119 (− 0.170, − 0.068)*0.44
(− 0.15, 1.03)
− 0.58
(− 1.17, 0.01)
−1.11
(− 2.15, − 0.06)*
−0.13
(− 1.50, 1.24)
−0.09
(− 0.64, 0.46)
0.05
(− 0.54, 0.64)
Marital status: Many sexual partners− 0.020 (− 0.117, 0.078)−0.07
(− 0.40, 0.27)
0.001
(− 0.99, 1.00)
− 0.50
(− 1.23, 0.22)
−0.61
(− 0.94, − 0.28)*
−0.09
(− 0.47, 0.30)
− 0.02
(− 0.36, 0.32)
Education: 9–10th Grade− 0.053 (− 0.132, 0.027)−0.90
(− 1.34, 0.46)
−0.26
(− 0.67, 0.15)
−0.32
(− 1.13, 0.49)
1.02
(− 0.10, 2.15)
0.34
(− 0.13, 0.81)
0.28
(− 0.21, 0.77)
Education: ≥ 11th Grade−0.136(− 0.207, − 0.064)**−1.20
(− 1.66, − 0.74)*
0.03
(− 0.42, 0.48)
0.80
(− 0.06, 1.66)
0.71
(0.50, 1.91)*
0.19
(− 0.31, 0.68)
0.59
(0.15, 1.03)*
Age_Cat: < 20 years0.018(− 0.039, 0.075)0.36
(0.01, 0.70)**
0.34
(− 0.03, 0.70)
0.15
(− 0.61, 0.92)
0.55
(− 0.44, 1.53)
0.22
(− 0.18, 0.62)
0.17
(− 0.15, 0.48)
Age_Cat: 21–39 years− 0.119(− 0.229, − 0.009)*0.08
(− 0.47, 0.63)
0.11
(− 0.58, 0.79)
−1.36
(− 3.17, 0.45)
1.23
(− 0.58, 3.04)
1.09
(0.32, 1.85)***
1.01
(0.48, 1.53)**
Sex while drunk: No−0.060(− 0.134, 0.015)0.10
(− 0.31, 0.51)
−0.23
(− 0.67, 0.20)
−0.55
(− 1.29, 0.18)
1.23
(0.28, 2.17)*
− 0.17
(− 0.58, 0.23)
0.17
(− 0.26, 0.59)
Weight−0.037(− 0.057, − 0.018)**− 0.23
(− 0.33, − 0.12)*
−0.30
(− 0.42, − 0.17)*
0.03
(− 0.27, 0.33)
0.21
(− 0.24, 0.65)
− 0.03
(− 0.19, 0.13)
−0.03
(− 0.12, 0.07)
Level of independence score− 0.006(− 0.017, 0.005)− 0.48
(− 0.60, − 0.37)*
−0.11
(− 0.23, 0.01)*
−0.37
(− 0.65, − 0.09)*
−0.05
(− 0.35, 0.26)
−0.03
(− 0.16, 0.09)
0.14
(0.03, 0.26)*
Social relationship score−0.015(− 0.026, − 0.003)*−0.12
(− 0.24, 0.01)
−0.04
(− 0.16, 0.08)
−0.25
(− 0.49, 0.01)
−0.14
(− 0.44, 0.17)
0.001
(− 0.13, 0.14)
−0.26
(− 0.38, 0.14)
Physical health score− 0.014(− 0.027, − 0.001)*− 0.45
(− 0.64, − 0.27)*
−0.36
(− 0.54, − 0.17)*
−0.25
(− 0.61, − 0.11)*
−0.49
(− 0.93, 0.06)
−0.36
(− 0.53, 0.19)
−0.36
(− 0.52, 0.20)
Psychological well-bing score0.005(− 0.008, 0.018)0.51
(0.32, 0.70)
0.14
(− 0.04, 0.32)
0.13
(− 0.19, 0.45)
0.50
(0.11, 0.90)**
0.07
(− 0.10, 0.23)
0.37
(0.19, 0.55)*
Liver enzymes abnormality component0.006(−0.002, 0.013)− 0.08
(− 0.18, 0.03)
−0.04
(− 0.15, 0.08)
0.04
(− 0.15, 0.22)
0.11
(− 0.16, 0.38)
−0.17
(− 0.30, − 0.05)*
0.04
(− 0.07, 0.16)
RBC indices−0.009(− 0.017, − 0.002)*−0.03
(− 0.13, 0.07)
−0.19
(− 0.30, − 0.07)*
0.04
(− 0.19, 0.26)
−0.07
(− 0.35, 0.21)
−0.08
(− 0.21, 0.04)
0.16
(0.04, 0.27)*
Granulocytes component−0.002(− 0.009, 0.006)−0.08
(− 0.18, 0.02)
−0.13
(− 0.25, − 0.02)*
−0.05
(− 0.28, 0.18)
0.001
(− 0.31, 0.32)
0.12
(0.001, 0.25)*
0.12
(0.01, 0.23)*
Mononuclear component0.017(−0.009, 0.024)− 0.35
(− 0.48, − 0.23)*
−0.45
(− 0.58, − 0.33)*
−0.56
(− 0.84, − 0.28)*
0.03
(− 0.23, 0.28)
0.33
(0.22, 0.45)***
0.32
(0.21, 0.43)*
Time SlopeAssociations between Transitions and Longitudinal Outcomes
Visit−0.007(− 0.015, 0.001)Transitions based on CD4 count Vs Viral LoadCoefficient95% CI of βP-value  
Weight0.001(−0.001, 0.001)Trans 1 vs baseline VL0.51(−0.35, 1.37)0.054  
Psychological well-bing score0.001(−0.001, 0.002)Trans 2 vs baseline VL−0.33(−0.66, − 0.001)0.043*  
Physical health score−0.004(− 0.008, − 0.001)*Trans 3 vs baseline VL0.18(− 0.11, 0.47)0.227  
Level of independence score0.001(−0.001, 0.001)Trans 4 vs baseline VL0.56(0.24, 0.88)0.001**  
Social relationship score0.001(−0.001, 0.002)Trans 5 vs baseline VL1.14(0.75, 1.54)0.000***  
Marital Status: Married (stable sex partner)0.005(−0.003, 0.007)Trans 6 vs baseline VL2.21(1.20, 3.21)0.000**  
Marital Status: many sex partners0.007 (0.003, 0.011)*Trans 1 vs Time slope VL0.06(−0.93, 1.05)0.909  
RBC indices−0.01(− 0.09, − 0.002)*Trans 2 vs Time slope VL−0.32(− 1.30, 0.67)0.528  
TB: Yes0.002 (0.001, 0.004)*Trans 3 vs Time slope VL0.62(−1.92, 3.16)0.632  
Sex while drunk: No0.0001(−0.003, 0.003)Trans 4 vs Time slope VL3.34(0.26, 6.42)0.034*  
Age_Cat:< 200.008 (0.003, 0.012)*Trans 5 vs Time slope VL2.15(0.69, 3.61)0.004**  
Age_Cat: 21–39 years0.001(−0.001, 0.003)Trans 6 vs Time slope VL1.22(0.05, 2.40)0.042*  
Education: 9–10th Grade0.001(−0.002, 0.004)      
Education: ≥ 11th Grade−0.001(−0.004, − 0.0003)*      
Liver enzymes abnormality component0.004 (0.001, 0.01)*      
  1. Keys:- Statistical significance: (*)P < 0.05; (**)P < 0.01; (***)P < 0.001; Reference category: Age [> 40]; Education [≤8 grade]; Marital status [single]; TB [No] and Sex while drunk [Yes]