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Table 2 Estimates and the 95% confidence intervals for parameters of joint multistate and longitudinal model

From: Modelling of viral load dynamics and CD4 cell count progression in an antiretroviral naive cohort: using a joint linear mixed and multistate Markov model

Variables

Longitudinal Process

Multi-State Process

β (95% CI)

Transition 1: Normal to Mild,

β (95% CI)

Transition 2: Mild to Advanced,

β (95% CI)

Transition 3: Advanced to Severe,

β (95% CI)

Transition 4: Severe to Advanced,

β(95% CI)

Transition 5: Advanced to Mild,

β (95% CI)

Transition 6: Mild to Normal,

β (95% CI)

Intercepts

2.197 (2.016, 2.377)***

1.41

(0.53, 2.28)*

1.21

(0.52, 1.91)*

2.08

(0.71, 3.46)*

2.46

(0.13, 4.79)*

− 0.01

(− 0.84, 0.83)

1.71

(0.79, 2.62)*

TB: Yes

0.147 (0.045, 0.249)**

0.61

(− 0.14, 1.37)

0.15

(− 0.43, 0.74)

1.50

(− 0.39, 3.39)

0.41

(− 2.42, 3.23)

− 0.47

(− 1.06, 0.12)

0.98

(− 0.24, 1.72)

Marital status: Married (stable sex partner)

− 0.119 (− 0.170, − 0.068)*

0.44

(− 0.15, 1.03)

− 0.58

(− 1.17, 0.01)

−1.11

(− 2.15, − 0.06)*

−0.13

(− 1.50, 1.24)

−0.09

(− 0.64, 0.46)

0.05

(− 0.54, 0.64)

Marital status: Many sexual partners

− 0.020 (− 0.117, 0.078)

−0.07

(− 0.40, 0.27)

0.001

(− 0.99, 1.00)

− 0.50

(− 1.23, 0.22)

−0.61

(− 0.94, − 0.28)*

−0.09

(− 0.47, 0.30)

− 0.02

(− 0.36, 0.32)

Education: 9–10th Grade

− 0.053 (− 0.132, 0.027)

−0.90

(− 1.34, 0.46)

−0.26

(− 0.67, 0.15)

−0.32

(− 1.13, 0.49)

1.02

(− 0.10, 2.15)

0.34

(− 0.13, 0.81)

0.28

(− 0.21, 0.77)

Education: ≥ 11th Grade

−0.136(− 0.207, − 0.064)**

−1.20

(− 1.66, − 0.74)*

0.03

(− 0.42, 0.48)

0.80

(− 0.06, 1.66)

0.71

(0.50, 1.91)*

0.19

(− 0.31, 0.68)

0.59

(0.15, 1.03)*

Age_Cat: < 20 years

0.018(− 0.039, 0.075)

0.36

(0.01, 0.70)**

0.34

(− 0.03, 0.70)

0.15

(− 0.61, 0.92)

0.55

(− 0.44, 1.53)

0.22

(− 0.18, 0.62)

0.17

(− 0.15, 0.48)

Age_Cat: 21–39 years

− 0.119(− 0.229, − 0.009)*

0.08

(− 0.47, 0.63)

0.11

(− 0.58, 0.79)

−1.36

(− 3.17, 0.45)

1.23

(− 0.58, 3.04)

1.09

(0.32, 1.85)***

1.01

(0.48, 1.53)**

Sex while drunk: No

−0.060(− 0.134, 0.015)

0.10

(− 0.31, 0.51)

−0.23

(− 0.67, 0.20)

−0.55

(− 1.29, 0.18)

1.23

(0.28, 2.17)*

− 0.17

(− 0.58, 0.23)

0.17

(− 0.26, 0.59)

Weight

−0.037(− 0.057, − 0.018)**

− 0.23

(− 0.33, − 0.12)*

−0.30

(− 0.42, − 0.17)*

0.03

(− 0.27, 0.33)

0.21

(− 0.24, 0.65)

− 0.03

(− 0.19, 0.13)

−0.03

(− 0.12, 0.07)

Level of independence score

− 0.006(− 0.017, 0.005)

− 0.48

(− 0.60, − 0.37)*

−0.11

(− 0.23, 0.01)*

−0.37

(− 0.65, − 0.09)*

−0.05

(− 0.35, 0.26)

−0.03

(− 0.16, 0.09)

0.14

(0.03, 0.26)*

Social relationship score

−0.015(− 0.026, − 0.003)*

−0.12

(− 0.24, 0.01)

−0.04

(− 0.16, 0.08)

−0.25

(− 0.49, 0.01)

−0.14

(− 0.44, 0.17)

0.001

(− 0.13, 0.14)

−0.26

(− 0.38, 0.14)

Physical health score

− 0.014(− 0.027, − 0.001)*

− 0.45

(− 0.64, − 0.27)*

−0.36

(− 0.54, − 0.17)*

−0.25

(− 0.61, − 0.11)*

−0.49

(− 0.93, 0.06)

−0.36

(− 0.53, 0.19)

−0.36

(− 0.52, 0.20)

Psychological well-bing score

0.005(− 0.008, 0.018)

0.51

(0.32, 0.70)

0.14

(− 0.04, 0.32)

0.13

(− 0.19, 0.45)

0.50

(0.11, 0.90)**

0.07

(− 0.10, 0.23)

0.37

(0.19, 0.55)*

Liver enzymes abnormality component

0.006(−0.002, 0.013)

− 0.08

(− 0.18, 0.03)

−0.04

(− 0.15, 0.08)

0.04

(− 0.15, 0.22)

0.11

(− 0.16, 0.38)

−0.17

(− 0.30, − 0.05)*

0.04

(− 0.07, 0.16)

RBC indices

−0.009(− 0.017, − 0.002)*

−0.03

(− 0.13, 0.07)

−0.19

(− 0.30, − 0.07)*

0.04

(− 0.19, 0.26)

−0.07

(− 0.35, 0.21)

−0.08

(− 0.21, 0.04)

0.16

(0.04, 0.27)*

Granulocytes component

−0.002(− 0.009, 0.006)

−0.08

(− 0.18, 0.02)

−0.13

(− 0.25, − 0.02)*

−0.05

(− 0.28, 0.18)

0.001

(− 0.31, 0.32)

0.12

(0.001, 0.25)*

0.12

(0.01, 0.23)*

Mononuclear component

0.017(−0.009, 0.024)

− 0.35

(− 0.48, − 0.23)*

−0.45

(− 0.58, − 0.33)*

−0.56

(− 0.84, − 0.28)*

0.03

(− 0.23, 0.28)

0.33

(0.22, 0.45)***

0.32

(0.21, 0.43)*

Time Slope

Associations between Transitions and Longitudinal Outcomes

Visit

−0.007(− 0.015, 0.001)

Transitions based on CD4 count Vs Viral Load

Coefficient

95% CI of β

P-value

  

Weight

0.001(−0.001, 0.001)

Trans 1 vs baseline VL

0.51

(−0.35, 1.37)

0.054

  

Psychological well-bing score

0.001(−0.001, 0.002)

Trans 2 vs baseline VL

−0.33

(−0.66, − 0.001)

0.043*

  

Physical health score

−0.004(− 0.008, − 0.001)*

Trans 3 vs baseline VL

0.18

(− 0.11, 0.47)

0.227

  

Level of independence score

0.001(−0.001, 0.001)

Trans 4 vs baseline VL

0.56

(0.24, 0.88)

0.001**

  

Social relationship score

0.001(−0.001, 0.002)

Trans 5 vs baseline VL

1.14

(0.75, 1.54)

0.000***

  

Marital Status: Married (stable sex partner)

0.005(−0.003, 0.007)

Trans 6 vs baseline VL

2.21

(1.20, 3.21)

0.000**

  

Marital Status: many sex partners

0.007 (0.003, 0.011)*

Trans 1 vs Time slope VL

0.06

(−0.93, 1.05)

0.909

  

RBC indices

−0.01(− 0.09, − 0.002)*

Trans 2 vs Time slope VL

−0.32

(− 1.30, 0.67)

0.528

  

TB: Yes

0.002 (0.001, 0.004)*

Trans 3 vs Time slope VL

0.62

(−1.92, 3.16)

0.632

  

Sex while drunk: No

0.0001(−0.003, 0.003)

Trans 4 vs Time slope VL

3.34

(0.26, 6.42)

0.034*

  

Age_Cat:< 20

0.008 (0.003, 0.012)*

Trans 5 vs Time slope VL

2.15

(0.69, 3.61)

0.004**

  

Age_Cat: 21–39 years

0.001(−0.001, 0.003)

Trans 6 vs Time slope VL

1.22

(0.05, 2.40)

0.042*

  

Education: 9–10th Grade

0.001(−0.002, 0.004)

      

Education: ≥ 11th Grade

−0.001(−0.004, − 0.0003)*

      

Liver enzymes abnormality component

0.004 (0.001, 0.01)*

      
  1. Keys:- Statistical significance: (*)P < 0.05; (**)P < 0.01; (***)P < 0.001; Reference category: Age [> 40]; Education [≤8 grade]; Marital status [single]; TB [No] and Sex while drunk [Yes]